I'm expecting several polls tonight as the papers commission surveys to test the post-budget mood. First out of the traps is a new ICM poll in the News of the World, topline figures are CON 39%(+1), LAB 31%(-1), LDEM 19%(nc) - so a slight widening
We won't have any more voting intention polls till tonight, but we have had some polling as the budget itself. YouGov's Sun poll also had some specific questions on the poll, ComRes had a poll for the Daily Politics, Populus have some findings here and Political
Tonights's Yougov tracker has topline figures of CON 37%(+1), LAB 33%(-1), LDEM 18%(+1), so the Tory lead goes back to four points. As I said yesterday, we'll never know for sure whether yesterday's two point lead was just an outlier, or
Ipsos MORI have conducted a new poll of marginal seats for Reuters. The poll covered marginal seats currently held by Labour, in which the Conservatives need a swing of between 5% and 9% to win (that's seats with majorities between 10% and 18%, so some pretty distant hopes
YouGov's daily poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 36%(-1), LAB 34%(+1), LDEM 17%(-1). Back to a very tight 2 point lead, and signs that the Lib Dem boost we saw last week is subsiding. The poll was conducted almost entirely before the
There is a new Harris poll in this morning's Metro. The topline figures are CON 35%(-1), LAB 28%(nc), LDEM 17%(-1). Others are up to 20%. Changes are from Harris's previous poll and are well within the margin of error. The Metro, for some
There are two new polls out tonight. Firstly tonight's voting intention figures in YouGov's Daily poll for the Sun are CON 37%(+1), LAB 33%(+1), LDEM 18%(-2). The lead remains at 4 points, and there is a conspicuous lack of impact from the fake
The Evening Standard are reporting a new YouGov poll in London for ITV. The topline figures are CON 40%, LAB 31%, LDEM 18%. This represents a hefty 8 point swing in the capital, significantly more than the figures YouGov have been showing nationally (the poll was conducted between the 19th
With the budget tomorrow, I thought I'd update this chart from a year ago. It shows the two YouGov polls preceding each of the last eight budgets, and the two YouGov polls that followed each one, giving us a sign of whether the budget gave the government a
Today's YouGov poll has topline figures of CON 36%(-2), LAB 32%(+1), LDEM 20%(+1). The Tory lead is back down to four points (in fact the figures are the same as YouGov were showing on Wednesday and Thursday last week) and it looks very likely that
There is a new Opinium poll in the Daily Express with topline figures of CON 37%(-2), LAB 30%(+2), LDEM 15%(-1). "Others" remain at a very high 18%. Looking at the back data of Opinium, they have some rather contrarian results - last autumn their polls
UPDATE: It seems that it is not a co-incidence that these "Populus" figures for the 10th-11th March match the ICM poll conducted at the same time. I've checked with Andrew Cooper and they are one and the same poll. As regular readers will know, Populus sometimes
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