We are 9 days out from the election, people look at the opinion polls wanting to know who is going to win, who is going to form the next government. The simple answer is that at present they can't tell us - we look set for a hung
The same point keeps coming up in comments - if there is some great surge of young voters backing the Liberal Democrats, would it be picked up in the polls? The short answer is that it should be. Pollsters in the UK do not weight their samples to match the
There are four new polls tonight - YouGov in the Sun, Opinium in the Express and ICM in the Guardian. ComRes is not officially out yet, but the Guardian are reporting it here. That gives us: YouGov/Sun CON 33%(-1), LAB 28%(nc), LDEM 29%(-1) Opinium/Express CON
I am in a meeting tonight, so may not be back in time to put up tonight's figures. We should be expecting YouGov, ComRes, and probably ICM and Opinium. Please use this thread to discuss them, and I'll update on my return.
PoliticsHome have YouGov's regional figures for the past week here. These are the first properly weighted regional breaks from YouGov on data entirely after the first debate (the data release last week straddled it) and they seem to suggest that the Lib Dem boost is stronger in the
YouGov's daily poll has topline figures of CON 34%(-1), LAB 28%(+1), LDEM 30%(+2). No significant change from yesterday's figures, but the Lib Dems at are 30%, so the Lib Dem surge remaining healthy here. I wasn't expecting any other polls tonight
There aren't normally many polls on Sunday night - YouGov's Sun poll will be out later - but I've had chance to look at more of the YouGov/Sunday Times data from yesterday/this morning, including that article from Peter Kellner on marginal data.
We have details of two more polls - YouGov's poll for the Sunday Times has topline figures, with changes from yesterday, of CON 35%(+1), LAB 27%(-2), LDEM 28% (-1). BPIX in the Mail on Sunday have figures, with changes from a week ago, of CON 34%
It's Saturday night, so I'd expect lots of polls for the Sunday newspapers. The first out of the traps are ComRes, ICM and MORI. ComRes for the Sunday Mirror and Independent on Sunday has topline figures of CON 34%(-1), LAB 28%(+3), LDEM 29%(+2)
I didn't expect any other polls tonight, but there's also a new Harris poll in the Daily Mail. The topline results, with changes from the previous Harris poll, are CON 34%(+3), LAB 26%(nc), LDEM 29%(-1), so a slight movement back towards the Conservatives,
YouGov's daily poll is out - the first since the second debate - and it seems to have had virtually no effect. Topline figures with changes since yesterday are CON 34%(nc), LAB 29%(nc), LDEM 29%(+1). No significant change since yesterday, and certainly not the sort
I've spent the last two days updating the candidates on the constituency pages (now all done apart from Northern Ireland - my greatful thanks to Blake Reynolds, David North and Matthew Israel for helping me collate all the data). In the meantime I seem to have missed MORI&
Sign up to receive occasional updates from UK Polling Report.