Back after the bank holiday break, tonight's YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 43%, LDEM 8%, Others 15% (including UKIP on 7%). Having been averaging at about a 12 point Labour lead, today's YouGov poll has the Labour lead back
Over on Labour Uncut Atual Hatwal worries that Labour's lead may only be 3 points, not 10. He rightly thinks back to those towering 20 point leads that Labour was enjoying in early 1990, before going on to lose the election in 1992 and warns Labour supporters not
It's a bank holiday weekend, so there's no YouGov/Sun daily poll tonight (or indeed tomorrow). However, there are two new polls conducted before the weekend, from AngusReid and Survation. Angus Reid was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday, and has topline figures, with changes since before
Full tables for the YouGov/Sunday Times poll are now up here, covering u-turns, strikes and more on the jubilee. On the regular leader ratings David Cameron's net rating is at minus 26 (no change from last week), Ed Miliband's at minus 28 (from minus 23
Tonight's YouGov poll for the Sunday Times has topline voting intention figures of CON 32%, LAB 42%, LDEM 8%, Others 17% (including UKIP on 7%). It's a ten point Labour lead, which is in line with what appears to be an underlying average in YouGov'
ICM's poll in the Sunday Telegraph is intriguing. Rather than asking voting intention, it asked people to estimate what shares of the vote each party would get in an election tomorrow. I'm not entirely sure what to make of it - largely because right now, all
Over the last a week or so there has been huge amounts of polling on the Jubilee and the royal family. We have polls from Ipsos MORI, from ICM in the Guardian, three lots from YouGov (summarised here), Populus for the Times here and ComRes in the Indy. All the
Tonight's YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 31%, LAB 45%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 8%, so back to a fourteen point Labour lead. The big temptation in looking at polls is to see patterns that aren't really there, to twist purely random movement
YouGov's daily poll for the Sun has topline figures tonight of CON 32%, LAB 44%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 7%. A Labour lead of twelve points, again pretty typical of YouGov's daily polls for the last week or two. Tonight's poll also has YouGov'
I started writing this blog back in 2005, largely because I thought the media's treatment of opinion polls was so unremittingly awful. One problem was the media's tendency to treat whatever poll they had commissioned themselves as it if were the gospel truth, while ignoring polls
There are two new polls out tonight ComRes in the Independent has topline figures of CON 34%(+1), LAB 42%(-1), LDEM 11%(nc), Others 13%(nc) - changes are from ComRes's last telephone poll, which was conducted in late March, just after the budget. No significant change
The full tables for the YouGov/Sunday Times poll are now up here, covering mainly the Beecroft recommendations and the monarchy. On the regular leader approval ratings David Cameron is on minus 26 (up from minus 30 last week), Ed Miliband is on minus 23 (from minus 27 last week)
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