Sunday polls

There were three polls in the Sunday papers today. Opinium in the Observer had topline figures of CON 32%. LAB 33%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 19%. The weekly YouGov poll for the Sunday Times also had only a one point lead for the Labour party: CON 34%, LAB 35%, LDEM 9%

Ashcroft poll of marginal seats

Lord Ashcorft has published some new polling of marginal seats, full details here. As with the ComRes marginal poll in the week the seats polled were mostly ultra-marginal seats - in this case, the 12 most marginal Con-Lab seats, the 12 most marginal Lab-Con seats, but whereas the ComRes poll

BBC Projected National Share

I'm having a nice rest after the election, but a brief update to add the BBC's projected national vote - CON 29%, LAB 31%, LD 13%, UKIP 17%. So in relation to my previous comments on the local results, Labour's lead is indeed only

Local election thoughts

After every local election I start with the same warning - local elections are not general elections. Fewer people vote, on different issues, and for some who don't vote on local issues it's an opportunity for a mid-term protest vote. They aren't a prediction

Local Results Thread

Polls are closed, counting in about half the councils is tonight, the other half tomorrow morning (the Press Association have a nifty list of when they expect particular councils to announce results here). Feel free to stick around and discuss results as they come in here. In the meantime, tonight&

Looking for exit polls?

Looking at the search terms people are arriving at the site using there are already fewer people looking for candidate information, and more people searching for exit polls. Straight answer is that there are none, and there won't be any. These days the only real exit poll done

YouGov final European poll - CON 22, LAB 26, LD 9, UKIP 27, GRN 10

YouGov's final European election poll is out tonight, conducted for the Sun and the Times. Topline figures are CON 22%, LAB 26%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 27%, GRN 10%. Like YouGov's recent polls it shows a very tight race for first place between UKIP and Labour, the

ComRes poll of marginal seats

ComRes have a poll of marginal seats out tonight covering the forty most marginal seats with Labour and Conservative in first and second place (so 25 with Tory incumbents, 15 with Labour incumbents). Collectively the vote in these seats was CON 37%, LAB 37%, LDEM 18%, UKIP 3% at the

Survation final Euro poll - CON 23, LAB 27, LD 9, UKIP 32, GRN 4

Survation have put our their final European election poll, conducted for the Daily Mirror. Topline figures are CON 23%, LAB 27%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 32%, GRN 4%. Survation made an additional tweak to their approach to turnout for their final poll, downweighting people who could not correctly identify which day

Opinium European poll - CON 20, LAB 29, LD 5, UKIP 31, GRN 5

There is also a new Opinium poll out in this morning's Daily Mail, with full details here on the Opinium website. Topline figures are CON 20%, LAB 29%, LDEM 5%, UKIP 31%, GRN 5%, BNP 3%. Labour and UKIP very close for first place, the Lib Dems equal

TNS European poll - CON 21, LAB 28, LD 7, UKIP 31, Others 13

We have another final European poll, this time from TNS. Their topline figures for European voting intention are CON 21%, LAB 28%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 31%, OTHER 13% - much closer than their previous poll which had a nine point lead for UKIP. It's based on only those

ComRes Final Euro poll - CON 20, LAB 27, LD 7, UKIP 33, GRN 6

ComRes have released what they say is their final poll before the European elections on Thursday. Topline figures are CON 20%, LAB 27%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 33%, GRN 6%. The lead for UKIP is far more modest than the eleven points in their weekend poll, but is still pretty robust.