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Latest YouGov, TNS and MORI polling

A quick update on the latest voting intention polls. This morning's YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 34%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 14%, GRN 8% (tabs) - more typical figures than YouGov's Tuesday poll. There is also a new TNS poll

By Anthony Wells 22 Jan 2015

No, polling doesn't show 80% of people want to leave the EU

I hope most of my regular readers would assume a Daily Express headline about a "poll" showing 80% of people want to leave the EU was nonsense anyway, but it's a new year, a new election campaign, and it's probably worth writing again about

By Anthony Wells 21 Jan 2015

YouGov/Sun - CON 32, LAB 30, LD 8, UKIP 15, GRN 10

We've had two new voting intention polls today, and both continue the trend of increasing Green party support. I briefly mentioned the monthly ICM poll for the Guardian earlier on today, which had the Green party up four points to 9%, the highest they have ever registered in

By Anthony Wells 20 Jan 2015

Are the polls underestimating the Tories?

Rob Hayward, the former Tory MP turned psephologist, gave a presentation at ComRes on Monday which has stirred up some comment about whether the polls are underestimating Conservative support. Historically the polls have tended to underestimate Conservative support and/or overestimate Labour support. It was most notable in 1992, but

By Anthony Wells 20 Jan 2015
Latest Populus and Ashcroft, Green polling and Survation Scotland

Latest Populus and Ashcroft, Green polling and Survation Scotland

Three new polls today - two GB polls and one Scottish one (and YouGov to come later). A week ago we had sharply contrasting polls from Lord Ashcroft and Populus - one showing a chunky Conservative lead, one showing a chunky Labour lead, both probably outliers. Today's Ashcroft

By Anthony Wells 19 Jan 2015

Gleanings from the Sunday polls

Back now, and ready to go through the rest of the Sunday polls apart from the voting intentions and pick out some of the more interesting findings: YouGov's poll for the Sun on Sunday asked about tactical voting (it didn't actually use the term, as I

By Anthony Wells 18 Jan 2015

Sunday polls

I've been caught up with various family commitments this weekend, so a very brief summary of the polls in the Sunday papers. We have the monthly ComRes poll in the Independent on Sunday, the fortnightly Opinium poll for the Observer, two YouGov polls (one in the Sun on

By Anthony Wells 18 Jan 2015

Sixteen weeks to go

I'm in meetings and out and about tomorrow, so I'm doing week two's round up tonight. The second week of 2015 and the long campaign we saw the first two phone polls of the year - Ipsos MORI's monthly political monitor and

By Anthony Wells 15 Jan 2015

Ipsos MORI - CON 33, LAB 34, LD 8, UKIP 11, GRN 8

Ipsos MORI's monthly poll for the Evening Standard came out today. MORI's last two polls rather stood out from the crowd by showing three point Conservative leads when all others were showing ties or small Labour leads. Today's poll looks far more like the

By Anthony Wells 15 Jan 2015

Latest YouGov poll, and some thoughts on debate polling

Tonight's YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 34%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 15%, GRN 7%. All looks normal by YouGov's recent standards (the two polls showing UKIP up at 17% and 18% that we saw immediately after the attacks in Paris

By Anthony Wells 14 Jan 2015

The most important issue facing the country

ComRes had a poll yesterday which got some attention because it showed the NHS as the issue people thought was most important facing the country, up eleven points since they last asked. This followed a YouGov poll last week which showed the NHS in third place in the list of

By Anthony Wells 13 Jan 2015

Contrasting Populus and Ashcroft polls

Tony Twyman, who died last year, was the man behind much of the mechanics of TV and radio viewing figures, most notably as technical advisor for BARB viewing figures. In broader market research he is more widely known for coining Twyman's Law - "Any figure that looks

By Anthony Wells 12 Jan 2015
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