Rob Hayward, the former Tory MP turned psephologist, gave a presentation at ComRes on Monday which has stirred up some comment about whether the polls are underestimating Conservative support. Historically the polls have tended to underestimate Conservative support and/or overestimate Labour support. It was most notable in 1992, but
Three new polls today - two GB polls and one Scottish one (and YouGov to come later). A week ago we had sharply contrasting polls from Lord Ashcroft and Populus - one showing a chunky Conservative lead, one showing a chunky Labour lead, both probably outliers. Today's Ashcroft
Back now, and ready to go through the rest of the Sunday polls apart from the voting intentions and pick out some of the more interesting findings: YouGov's poll for the Sun on Sunday asked about tactical voting (it didn't actually use the term, as I
I've been caught up with various family commitments this weekend, so a very brief summary of the polls in the Sunday papers. We have the monthly ComRes poll in the Independent on Sunday, the fortnightly Opinium poll for the Observer, two YouGov polls (one in the Sun on
I'm in meetings and out and about tomorrow, so I'm doing week two's round up tonight. The second week of 2015 and the long campaign we saw the first two phone polls of the year - Ipsos MORI's monthly political monitor and
Ipsos MORI's monthly poll for the Evening Standard came out today. MORI's last two polls rather stood out from the crowd by showing three point Conservative leads when all others were showing ties or small Labour leads. Today's poll looks far more like the
Tonight's YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 34%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 15%, GRN 7%. All looks normal by YouGov's recent standards (the two polls showing UKIP up at 17% and 18% that we saw immediately after the attacks in Paris
ComRes had a poll yesterday which got some attention because it showed the NHS as the issue people thought was most important facing the country, up eleven points since they last asked. This followed a YouGov poll last week which showed the NHS in third place in the list of
Tony Twyman, who died last year, was the man behind much of the mechanics of TV and radio viewing figures, most notably as technical advisor for BARB viewing figures. In broader market research he is more widely known for coining Twyman's Law - "Any figure that looks
This week's YouGov/Sunday Times poll is out here. Topline figures are CON 32%, LAB 32%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 18%, GRN 6%. YouGov's average for UKIP this week has been running at only been 14%, so the 18% here looks unusually high – it could be an
In the first week back there have been seven polls. The regular weekly Ashcroft poll hasn't fired up yet, and none of the phone pollsters did fieldwork over the first weekend of the year, but the daily YouGov and twice-weekly Populus polls are off: Opinium/Observer (2/1/
This evening's daily YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 33%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 7% After a couple of days with the Greens equal or ahead of the Liberal Democrats, today's poll has them behind. These little variations between
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