Sixteen weeks to go

I'm in meetings and out and about tomorrow, so I'm doing week two's round up tonight. The second week of 2015 and the long campaign we saw the first two phone polls of the year - Ipsos MORI's monthly political monitor and

Ipsos MORI - CON 33, LAB 34, LD 8, UKIP 11, GRN 8

Ipsos MORI's monthly poll for the Evening Standard came out today. MORI's last two polls rather stood out from the crowd by showing three point Conservative leads when all others were showing ties or small Labour leads. Today's poll looks far more like the

Latest YouGov poll, and some thoughts on debate polling

Tonight's YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 34%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 15%, GRN 7%. All looks normal by YouGov's recent standards (the two polls showing UKIP up at 17% and 18% that we saw immediately after the attacks in Paris

The most important issue facing the country

ComRes had a poll yesterday which got some attention because it showed the NHS as the issue people thought was most important facing the country, up eleven points since they last asked. This followed a YouGov poll last week which showed the NHS in third place in the list of

Contrasting Populus and Ashcroft polls

Tony Twyman, who died last year, was the man behind much of the mechanics of TV and radio viewing figures, most notably as technical advisor for BARB viewing figures. In broader market research he is more widely known for coining Twyman's Law - "Any figure that looks

YouGov/Sunday Times - CON 32, LAB 32, LD 7, UKIP 18, GRN 6

This week's YouGov/Sunday Times poll is out here. Topline figures are CON 32%, LAB 32%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 18%, GRN 6%. YouGov's average for UKIP this week has been running at only been 14%, so the 18% here looks unusually high – it could be an

Seventeen weeks to go

In the first week back there have been seven polls. The regular weekly Ashcroft poll hasn't fired up yet, and none of the phone pollsters did fieldwork over the first weekend of the year, but the daily YouGov and twice-weekly Populus polls are off: Opinium/Observer (2/1/

YouGov/Sun - CON 33 LAB 33 LD 8 UKIP 13 GRN 7

This evening's daily YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 33%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 7% After a couple of days with the Greens equal or ahead of the Liberal Democrats, today's poll has them behind. These little variations between

YouGov/Sun - CON 33, LAB 33, LD 7, UKIP 13, GRN 8

Tonight's YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 33%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 13%, GRN 8%. That's a couple of YouGov polls in a row showing lower than usual UKIP scores, despite the shift in prompting. Today's is the lowest

YouGov/Sun - CON 31, LAB 34, LD 7, UKIP 14, GRN 8

YouGov's first poll of the year is out tonight, with topline figures of CON 31%, LAB 34%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 14%, GRN 8%. YouGov have made a couple of methodological changes to start the election year. The first and most interesting is to include UKIP in the main

First poll of 2015 from Opinium

The Christmas polling break is over. Opinium have the first poll of 2015 out tonight, conducted for the Observer. Topline figures are CON 32%(+3), LAB 33%(-3), LDEM 8%(+2), UKIP 17%(+1), GRN 4%(-1). The poll has a sharp drop in Labour's lead, down six

Six opinion poll findings from 2014

1) Labour's lead continued to fall For the main horse race - who is in the position to win the next general election - the key point is always the lead in the polls, and throughout 2014 Labour's lead over the Conservatives continued to fade away.