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How to read a marginals poll

I've my usual weekly update to do later tonight or tomorrow morning, but in the meantime a quick note on the new ComRes poll of marginal seats, which has tables here. My heart always sort of falls when I see a marginal seats poll, as I know how

By Anthony Wells 13 Feb 2015

Latest MORI poll and the UKIP trend

The monthly Ipsos MORI poll for the Standard is out and has topline figures of CON 34%(+1), LAB 36%(+2), LDEM 6%(-2), UKIP 9%(-2), GRN 7%(-1). MORI tend to give UKIP some of their lower figures anyway, but this is the first poll from any company

By Anthony Wells 12 Feb 2015

YouGov/Sun CON 32, LAB 33, LD 7, UKIP 15, GRN 7

The regular YouGov/Sun poll tonight has topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 33%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 15%, GRN 7% - YouGov continue to show the two main parties extremely close, normally within a point of each other. Earlier on today we also had a new poll of student voters

By Anthony Wells 11 Feb 2015

TNS Scottish poll

This morning TNS released a new Scottish poll. Topline Westminster voting intention figures are CON 16%, LAB 31%, LDEM 4%, SNP 41%, GRN 6%, UKIP 2% (tabs here). Under normal circumstances these would obviously be good figures for the SNP, but these are not normal circumstances and it's

By Anthony Wells 10 Feb 2015

Latest Populus and Ashcroft polls

Two of our regular Monday polls are out: The weekly Lord Ashcroft poll has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 31%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%. Full tabs are here. The twice weekly Populus poll has toplines of CON 33%, LAB 34%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 15%, GRN 4%. Full

By Anthony Wells 09 Feb 2015

YouGov/Sunday Times - CON 32, LAB 33, LD 7, UKIP 15, GRN 8

This week's YouGov/Sunday Times poll is up here, with topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 33%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 15%, GRN 8%. The rest of the poll included questions on Labour and business and on intervention in Iraq. The Conservatives are seen as having the best policies

By Anthony Wells 08 Feb 2015

Opinium/Observer - CON 32, LAB 34, LD 7, UKIP 15, GRN 8

For the run up to the election Opinium have moved from fortnightly to weekly polls for the Observer, and tonight's figures are CON 32%(nc), LAB 34%(+1), LDEM 7%(+2), UKIP 15%(-3), GRN 8%(+2). A couple of other updates. First, I have updated how the

By Anthony Wells 07 Feb 2015

13 Weeks to go

It's been a fairly quiet week for GB voting intention polls, but an interesting one for constituency polling. For GB polls we've had just the regular weekly polls (Opinium for the Observer are now every week) and TNS. Opinium/Observer (30/1/15) - CON 32%

By Anthony Wells 06 Feb 2015

Polling in Sheffield Hallam

Survation have a new poll out in Sheffield Hallam which gives a ten point lead to Labour. Naturally this has produced a lot of crowing from people who don't much like Nick Clegg and some possibly unwise comments from Nick Clegg about the poll being "bilge"

By Anthony Wells 05 Feb 2015

Latest YouGov and TNS polls

Today's daily YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 33%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 13%, GRN 7%. This is the first Tory lead from YouGov this week - their underlying average has the two main parties very close to each other, so we should

By Anthony Wells 04 Feb 2015
Ashcroft Scottish polling - a primer

Ashcroft Scottish polling - a primer

On average the four Scottish polls so far this year show Labour on 27%, the Lib Dems on 5% and the SNP on 47%. This is the equivalent of a swing of 21 percent from Labour to the SNP and 20.5% the Liberal Democrats to the SNP. On a

By Anthony Wells 03 Feb 2015

YouGov/Times Scottish poll has SNP 21 points ahead

The Times tomorrow has a new YouGov poll of Scotland - full figures aren't up yet (the tables will be on the YouGov website tomorrow as usual), but the Times front page has the topline Westminster voting intentions of LAB 27% (no change since YouGov's last

By Anthony Wells 02 Feb 2015
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