Lord Ashcroft has a new batch of constituency polls out, this time looking at ten Conservative held seats with majorities of around 9% to 12% - seats that would need a Con>Lab swing of around about 5% to fall to Labour. Full details are here. National opinion polls
The worst thing you can do in analysing polls of voting intention is to get excited at polls that show something exciting and different and ignore those that show the same old pattern. Occassionally the unusual poll will herald a genuine movement in public opinion - after all, whenever there
The full results of YouGov's weekly Sunday Times poll are now up here. Topline figures are CON 34%, LAB 34%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 13%, GRN 6%. The rest of the poll dealt mainly with perceptions of Labour and the Conservatives on tax, spending and business, plus the row
There are two polls for tomorrow's Sunday papers, YouGov in the Sunday Times and Opinium in the Observer. Neither suggests anything other than business as usual. YouGov in the Sunday Times have topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 34%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 13%, GRN 6%. Opinium have topline
Here are this week's polls - slightly fewer than usual because of the Easter bank holiday, meaning we didn't get the usual Ashcroft poll on Monday. Survation/Mirror (3/4) - CON 31%, LAB 33%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 18%, GRN 3% Opinium/Observer (3/4) -
After a quiet start to the week today is turning out to be a busy day for polling, with new polls so far from Panelbase, TNS and Survation and ComRes and YouGov still to come. Here's the rundown on what today's polls so far show: TNS
Lord Ashcroft released a new batch of constituency polls this afternoon, this time returning to ten Conservative -vs- Labour seats where he found a tight battle last time round. Full details are here. I normally look at the average swing across the groups of seats that Lord Ashcroft polls, but
The bank holiday yesterday means we didn't get our usual rush of Monday polling - while there's no real concrete evidence that doing poll fieldwork over a bank holiday produces odd results, polling companies tend to avoid it just in case. This means there was no
This morning's Mail on Sunday had a new poll of South Thanet which they built up into a UKIP "covering up" an unfavourable poll showing them headed for defeat. ComRes have subsequently released the tables for the poll here, revealing it was actually commissioned by ChartwellPolitical,
The weekly YouGov poll for the Sunday Times is here, with topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 33%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 13%, GRN 4%. As with the Opinium and Survation polls, there is no obvious sign of any change in the Labour -v- Conservative lead, though it's first
Last week Opinium's Observer poll was conducted prior to the Paxman interview, so I wasn't sure whether the poll from them tonight would be "post-debate" or not. In the event it is - conducted on Friday and late on Thursday night. As with Survation&
I'm keeping posting to a minimum over the Easter weekend, but a quick update with the first voting intention poll done since the leader's debate. The Survation poll for the Mirror has topline figures of CON 31%(-1), LAB 33%(nc), LDEM 9%(+1), UKIP 18%
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