Ipsos MORI/Standard - CON 39, LAB 30, LD 9, UKIP 8, GRN 6

Ipsos MORI's monthly political monitor is out, their first since the election. Topline figures are CON 39%, LAB 30%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 8%, GRN 6%. As with other recent voting intention polls, the figures themselves are perhaps less interesting than the methodology changes. In the case of Ipsos

ICM/Guardian - CON 37, LAB 31, LDEM 8, UKIP 13, GRN 5

The Guardian themselves seem to have put a pause on reporting their polls, but they are wisely continuing to commission their series of ICM/Guardian polls so as not to leave a gap in the data. Topline figures in the first post-election ICM poll are CON 37%, LAB 31%, LDEM

Have ethnic minority voters swung to the Tories?

The best estimates of how Britain's ethnic minorities voted in the 2010 election, taken from the Ethnic Minority British Election Study, are CON 16%, LAB 68%. Last month British Future released a report, based on Survation polling, that suggested that ethnic minority voters in 2015 split CON 33%

The British Election Study on why the polls were wrong

Next Friday is the public meeting of the British Polling Council inquiry into the failure of the polls at the 2015 election, at which point I expect we'll get some insight into what the different polling companies are thinking, though probably not many firm conclusions yet. In the

TNS Holyrood poll

TNS have released what I think is the first Scottish voting intention poll since the election. Prior to May Scottish polls concentrated on Westminster voting intentions (though many asked both Westminster and Holyrood), the focus now shifts over to Holyrood intentions ahead of next May's election. Voting intentions

ComRes/Daily Mail - CON 41, LAB 29, LD 8, UKIP 10, GRN 5

ComRes have released their first voting intention poll since the election, and have topline figures of CON 41%, LAB 29%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 10%, GRN 5%. Full details are here. The ComRes poll also had the first attempt at a methodology change to address the failings of the polls at

YouGov VI and polling on FIFA

The Sun this morning have YouGov voting intention figures - their first since the election - of CON 41%, LAB 30%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 13%, GRN 4%. Note that in terms of methodology, the figures are past vote weighted to the election result for the time being, obviously the pollsters

Constituency Guide update

Just a quick line to point out that the Constituency guide part of the site has now been updated to reflect the general election results and the new MPs elected, including the target and defence lists for the parties (SNP and UKIP to follow). Before anyone points it out there&

Details of the polling Inquiry

The day after the election the British Polling Council announced it was going to have an inquiry into what went wrong with the polls, we've now got some more information about how the inquiry is going to proceed. Over on the National Centre for Research Methods website they

Polling in the coming weeks

Opinion polls are a little light at the moment, and probably will be for the next few weeks. Even at the best of times there is little polling in the weeks immediately following a general election - we've just had an actual general election to judge people'

Spreadsheet of the General Election Results

A few people have asked me if I know where there is a spreadsheet of the general election results available so they can crunch the numbers and explore results themselves. Until now I've been using results scraped off the BBC website, but the British Election Study team have

The mountain facing Labour

Stephen Bush over at the New Statesman has written an interesting article about the mountain that faces Labour at the next election. I've now had chance to sit down and play with the election results and the picture is as bleak for Labour as Stephen paints - for