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Voodoo polling corner

Back in 2012 I wrote about the Observer reporting an open-access poll on a website campaigning against the government's health bill as if it was representative of members of the Royal College of Physicians. I also wrote to the Observer's readers' editor, Stephen Pritchard, who

By Anthony Wells 21 Oct 2015

Latest ICM EU Referendum figures - REMAIN 44, LEAVE 38

ICM's latest weekly tracker on the EU referendum has voting intentions of REMAIN 44%(-1), LEAVE 38%(+2). The gap has narrowed since last week, but doesn't reflect any real trend: looking at ICM's EU polls since the referendum wording was changed they'

By Anthony Wells 20 Oct 2015

EU Referendum

EU Membership Referendum Referendum Question/voting intention Polls asking referendum voting intention including the wording of the proposed referendum. Note that the wording of the question was changed from September 2015 on the recommendation of the Electoral Commission. DateRemainLeaveWNV or DKRemainLeave Survation/IG20/6/20164544115149 YouGov/Times19/6/20164244134951 ORB/

By Anthony Wells 20 Oct 2015

ComRes/Indy on Sunday - CON 42, LAB 29, LD 7, UKIP 13, GRN 3

ComRes's monthly online poll for the Independent on Sunday is out today and has topline figures of CON 42%(nc), LAB 29%(-1), LDEM 7%(nc), UKIP 13%(nc), GRN 3%(nc). There is no significant change in support since last month. For those intrigued by the big

By Anthony Wells 18 Oct 2015

What polls say about grammar schools

The biggest political news story today is the government's decision to allow the opening of a de facto new grammar school in Kent (it's illegal to actually open a new grammar school, so technically it's a second site for an existing grammar school in

By Anthony Wells 15 Oct 2015

Latest YouGov Scottish polling

There is a new YouGov Scottish poll in this morning's Times. Topline Holyrood voting intentions are pretty much unchanged from YouGov's last Scottish poll a month ago, just before Jeremy Corbyn became Labour leader. Constituency vote stands are CON 19%(+1), LAB 21%(-1), LDEM 5%

By Anthony Wells 15 Oct 2015

ICM/Guardian - CON 38, LAB 34, LD 7, UKIP 11, GRN 3

The monthly ICM poll for the Guardian is out today and has topline figures of CON 38%, LAB 34%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 11%, GRN 3%. The four point Conservative lead is the smallest since the election - while Jeremy Corbyn maybe getting some mediocre personal poll ratings, it does not

By Anthony Wells 12 Oct 2015

Latest EU referendum polling

We've had two "new" polls on EU membership this week (the inverted commas are there becuase while the ICM poll out today has fresh fieldwork, the ComRes poll earlier in the week was actually done at the end of September). ICM's latest figures have

By Anthony Wells 09 Oct 2015

YouGov/Sun - CON 37, LAB 31, LDEM 7, UKIP 17, GRN 2

The Sun had fresh YouGov voting intention figures today, fieldwork conducted straight after Jeremy Corbyn's speech. Topline figures are CON 37%(-2), LAB 31%(nc), LDEM 7%(+1), UKIP 17%(+1) - changes are since YouGov's last poll in mid-September, just after Jeremy Corbyn became leader.

By Anthony Wells 02 Oct 2015

ComRes/Mail - CON 39, LAB 30, LD 9, UKIP 12

ComRes released their monthly telephone poll for the Daily Mail last night, topline figures were CON 39%, LAB 30%, LD 9%, UKIP 12%, GRN 4%. While the nine point Conservative lead looks similar to most recent polls, note that ComRes have been showing larger Conservative leads of late (typically around

By Anthony Wells 30 Sep 2015

Latest YouGov Welsh and EU figures

There are two new bits of YouGov polling today. First up is the regular Welsh political barometer. The usual caveats apply about it being just one poll, but it shows Labour support perking up in Wales since Jeremy Corbyn's election - Westminster voting intentions with changes from last

By Anthony Wells 28 Sep 2015

Ipsos MORI/Standard - CON 39, LAB 34, LD 9, UKIP 7, GRN 4

Ipsos MORI have published their September political monitor for the Evening Standard. Topline voting intention figures are CON 39%, LAB 34%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 7%, GRN 4%. MORI have made another methodological change in the light of the polling error at the general election. Previously they had started including how

By Anthony Wells 24 Sep 2015
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