On Tuesday the BPC/MRS's inquiry into why the polls went wrong publishes its first findings. Here's what you need to know in advance. The main thing the inquiry is looking at is why the polls were wrong. There are, essentially, three broad categories of problems
Survation had a new poll of Scottish voting intentions in the Holyrood election this week. As usual in the present Scottish political scene they show a towering SNP lead, with Labour second and the Conservatives in third. Constituency voting intentions are SNP 52%, LAB 21%, CON 16%, LDEM 7%; Regional
Support or opposition to strike action is often largely influenced by people's attitudes to the people going on strike and the inconvenience it causes them. If it's a profession that people admire and think is generally hard done by they'll sympathise, if it'
I'm just catching up on the YouGov London poll earlier in the week for LBC - full tabs are here. Last May Labour enjoyed a solid swing in their favour in London and ended up nine points ahead of the Tories, they've largely maintained that support
Over the New Year the Times had an end of year YouGov poll, conducted in mid-December. The tables went up on the YouGov website today here. Topline figures were CON 39%, LAB 29%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 17%, GRN 3%. The rest of the poll, covering a lot of the trackers
2015 is unlikely to be remembered as a high point in opinion polling. In the months since the election I've spoken at various events and appeared on various panels, and at almost every one at some point there's been a question from the audience along the
ICM released their final monthly voting intention poll of 2015 yesterday, with topline figures of CON 39%, LAB 34%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 10%, GRN 3%. I assume it's the last voting intention poll we will see before Christmas. The full tables are here, where ICM also make an
Opinium have a new poll in today's Observer - topline figures are CON 38%, LAB 30%, LDEM 5%, UKIP 16%, GRN 5%. Tabs are here. The rest of the poll largely concentrated on leadership questions. Cameron's approval rating stands at minus 6, Corbyn at minus 25,
Yesterday there were two EU referendum polls showing the race essentially neck-and-neck. Today there are two more EU referendum polls, but both of these have REMAIN with a solid looking twenty-plus point lead. ComRes for OpenEurope have topline EU voting intention figures of REMAIN 56%, LEAVE 35% (tabs are here)
A quick update on EU referendum polling. The regular weekly ICM poll today has topline figures of REMAIN 42%, LEAVE 41%. This is closer than ICM have been showing of late - typically they've had REMAIN with a lead of around six points - but as ever, it&
The monthly ComRes online poll for the Indy on Sunday and Sunday Mirror is out today and has topline figures of CON 40%(-2), LAB 29%(+2), LDEM 7%(nc), UKIP 16%(+1), GRN 3%(nc). The changes since last month are likely just a reversion to the mean -
Today YouGov have put out their diagnosis of what what wrong at the election - the paper is summarised here and the full report, co-authored by Doug Rivers and myself, can be downloaded here. As is almost inevitable with investigations like this there were lots of small issues that couldn&
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