The Times have a YouGov poll tomorrow asking who people want to see as the next Conservative leader. Now, this is a question that I had got a bit bored of asking over the years: almost always Boris Johnson wins easily - he is the most recognisable of the Tory
If I were TNS or Opinium I would be rather annoyed today. Looking through social media, twitter and so forth there are lots of comments about the polls all being wrong and it being a terrible night for the pollsters, etc, etc. Both TNS and Opinium had final call figures
It's the eve of the referendum, so we have a flurry of late polls. Later on this evening we will have figures from ComRes and YouGov (Ipsos MORI's final poll is normally in the Standard, so will probably be out tomorrow morning), already we have final
Two more polls have been released during today, both showing the race essentially neck and neck. Survation have released their final EU telephone poll for IG Group (not sure if that's their final poll for the referendum itself, or just the final one for IG). Topline figures with
There are three polls in tomorrow morning's papers - ORB in the telephone, YouGov in the Times and a NatCen poll in the Financial Times. YouGov for the Times has topline figures of REMAIN 42%(-2), LEAVE 44%(+1), Don't know or Won't vote
Like the Survation poll in the Mail on Sunday, YouGov in the Sunday Times show Remain ahead again following the pro-Leave polls a week ago. Topline figures are REMAIN 44%, LEAVE 43%, with fieldwork conducted on Thursday and Friday (full tabs are here). Almost inevitably people are going to look
Opinium's weekly poll for the Observer has topline figures of REMAIN 44%(nc), LEAVE 44%(+2), so split right down the middle. The fieldwork was conducted between Tuesday and Friday, but the majority was before the murder of Jo Cox. Full tabs are here. This isn't
BMG were supposed to put out their final EU poll yesterday, but it was put back for a day because of the murder of Jo Cox and eventually emerged this morning. BMG carried out parallel telephone and online polls, and unlike ICM who no longer find any difference at at
Ipsos MORI's telephone poll for the Standard is out and now also shows Leave ahead. Topline figures are LEAVE 53%, REMAIN 47% among likely voters. On paper this is a huge shift - MORI's previous poll had an eighteen point lead for Remain among all voters
Two more polls today, two more significant swings towards Leave: TNS's latest poll, conducted online, has topline figures of REMAIN 40%(-1), LEAVE 47%(+4), Undecided or Wouldn't Vote 13%(-3). The changes since their previous poll in mid-May probably understate the move towards Leave a
YouGov and ORB have new polls in the Tuesday newspapers. YouGov in the Times have topline figures of REMAIN 39%, LEAVE 46%, Don't know or won't vote 15%. This equates to an eight point LEAVE lead once the don't knows are excluded, the largest
Two weeks ago ICM produced an unexpected result - they did parallel phone and online polls for the Guardian, and found a five point lead for LEAVE in both online and by phone. A five point lead for leave in an online poll was slightly unusual, but not completely out
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