Last month I put up a post that argued that the Labour recovery in recent months co-incided with a rather counter-intuitive increase in the proportion of people who thought the economy would be doing better in 6 months time, something that had emerged since the bank bailout in the Autumn.
ICM have released the figures for a poll they carried out for Greenpeace in 6 West London marginal seats (Battersea, Ealing Central & Acton, Ealing North, Brentford and Isleworth, Hammersmith and Feltham & Heston) about Heathrow expansion which also includes voting intention figures in those seats. The topline
The headline for this should at least attract some intrigued readers! Anyway, while we are waiting for the first intention polls of the year (by normal timetables the first we should expect is Populus, which would normally be due tomorrow) there are chance to look back at some of the
When commentators write about polls they often fail to resist reaching for the cliche of saying the polls are extremely volatile, or even that there is unprecedented volatility. Often what they actual mean is that differences between pollsters or normal random sample error are spitting out apparently contradictory figures. Polls
ComRes have released what is probably the final poll of the year (though I'm conscious I was rather premature saying that last year when a final YouGov poll emerged after Christmas!). The topline figures, with changes from ComRes's last poll, are CON 39%(+2), LAB 34%
YouGov's final poll of the year for the Telegraph has topline figures, with changes from their last poll, of CON 42%(+1), LAB 35%(nc), LDEM 14%(-1). It was conducted between the 16th and 18th December. Clearly there is no significant change on the last YouGov poll,
The polls are now showing levels of support that would result in a hung parliament that would, given the maths, almost certainly produce another Labour government. However, expectations continue to be that Labour will lose the next election. As I type the bookies still have the Conservatives as the heavy
No2ID, the campaign against ID cards, have commissioned an update to their regular ICM polls on ID cards, which shows no change whatsover in the pretty even split in favour and against the idea (48% support it, 46% opposed). As I've said before, polls commissioned by pressure groups
MORI have released their monthly political monitor (their poll earlier this week was a seperate one, commissioned by the Daily Mirror). The topline figures, with changes from earlier this week, are CON 39%(-2), LAB 35%(-1), LDEM 15%(+4). I don't have confirmed fieldwork dates yet, but
ICM's monthly poll for the Guardian, which we had expected yesterday, is out on their website now. The topline figures, with changes from ICM's last poll, are CON 38%(-7), LAB 33%(+3), LDEM 19%(+1). The poll was conducted between the 12th and 14th December.
As usual, the Sunday Times commissioned questions on quite a grab bag of topics. The full results are here, and here are a few of the other interesting findings therein. Firstly, asked about the pre-budget report, the majority of people supported the measures - 54% to 30% - but there
As I had rather hoped we are getting a real flurry of polls now - a new MORI poll in this morning's Daily Mirror shows the Conservative lead dropping to 5 points, bringing it much more into line with polls from other companies than the 11 point lead
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