Party conference season is sometimes a period of volatile polling - each party typically gets its own week of media coverage which, if all goes well, they'll use for some positive announcements. This year it also immediately followed the Salzburg summit and Theresa May's Brexit statement
There is plenty of new polling in today's papers, including two polls proporting to show that large numbers of people would vote for new political parties. One by BMG for the Huffington Post, claiming 58% of people would consider backing a new party at the next election, and
The regular Ipsos MORI political monitor came out in today's Evening Standard. Topline voting intention figures were CON 39%(+1), LAB 37%(-1), LDEM 13%(+3), UKIP 2%(-4). Fieldwork was Friday to Tuesday and changes are from MORI's last poll in July (they take a
On Monday the government tabled the final recommendations of the boundary review. As usual, I've done updated notional calculations for what the results of the 2017 election would have been if fought on the new constituency boundaries. They are viewable in full on a google spreadsheet on the
A quick update on three new voting intention polls in the last day: Survation for the Daily Mail have topline figures of CON 38%(+1), LAB 37%(-4), LDEM 10%(+4), UKIP 4%(+3). Fieldwork was done wholly on Friday, after the news of Boris Johnson's seperation from
While there hasn't been a lot of voting intention polling in recent weeks, there has been quite a lot of Brexit polling - those organisations campaigning for or against it used the summer holidays to get a good bite of publicity. This included some large polls from YouGov
August is normally a quiet time for polling - partly because the political agenda is often quite bare, partly because both pollsters themselves and the journalists who normally commission public polls will likely be taking their holidays (There's also a question to be asked about sampling when a
If I could teach people one thing about public opinion it would be how little most of the political soap-opera actually matters. Lots of the stories that obsess the Westminster media hardly break through to the public at all. Those people who do notice it tend to be the most
Two new voting intention polls out today, one from ICM in the Guardian and one from YouGov in the Times. Topline figures from ICM are CON 39%(-1), LAB 40%(-1), LDEM 7%(-1), UKIP 6%(+1). Fieldwork was Friday to Sunday, and changes are from a fortnight ago. Clearly
A quick update on recent voting intention polls. When I last updated in mid-July, there was a clear trend towards Labour across the polling companies, with YouGov, Opinium, Deltapoll all showing the Conservatives dropping backing significantly in the wake of the Johnson & Davis resignations (whether one attributes that
YouGov's regular poll for the Times this week shows another Labour lead, with topline figures of CON 36%(-1), LAB 41%(+2), LDEM 9%(-1), UKIP 7%(+1). Fieldwork was on Monday and Tuesday, and changes are from the middle of last week. We've now had
Following the midweek YouGov poll, there are two more polls in today's papers showing the Conservatives falling back behind Labour in the wake of the cabinet Brexit "deal" and the Davis/Johnson resignations. Opinum in the Observer, conducted between Tuesday and Friday, has topline figures of
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