The weekend papers have the first two polls with fieldwork conducted after the New Year - BMG in the Independent and Survation for yesterday's Mail. Voting intention in the two polls is: Survation: CON 38%(-1), LAB 41%(+1), LDEM 10%(+2), UKIP 4%(nc) BMG: CON 36%
A brief update on the state of the polls as we head towards Christmas. First let look at voting intention. The six voting intention polls we've seen published so far in December have all shown the two main parties essentially neck and neck - two have shown tiny
A brief note about the Survation poll in today's Mail. A lot of responses to this have really got the wrong end of the stick - the Daily Mail have, quite obviously, written it up with a very pro-deal slant and have not focused upon elements of the
The Sunday papers have the first two voting intention polls conducted since the draft Brexit deal was unveiled: Opinium in the Observer have topline figures of CON 36%(-5), LAB 39%(+2), LDEM 7%(-1), UKIP 8%(+2). Fieldwork was Wednesday to Thursday and changes are from a month ago
There have been a flurry of polls following the announcement of the draft Brexit deal - all have tended to show a negative reaction. The most thorough were full length polls from YouGov for the Times and Survation for the Mail. YouGov's full length poll found that, based
Just to catch up on the post-budget YouGov polling from yesterday's Times, carried out on Monday evening and Tuesday morning. At the simplest level, the budget appears to have polled well. All the measures within met with approval and overall people thought it was a fair budget (44%
Ipsos MORI's monthly political monitor poll for the Standard was published yesterday. Topline voting intentions were CON 39%, LAB 37%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 5%. The two point lead is unchanged from MORI's previous poll in September, and are very much in line with the other recent
Opinium have a new poll in the Observer today (I think it's the only poll in the Sunday papers, at least, it seems to be the only voting intention poll). Headline voting intentions are CON 41%, LAB 37%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 6%. Fieldwork was Thursday and Friday and
Party conference season is sometimes a period of volatile polling - each party typically gets its own week of media coverage which, if all goes well, they'll use for some positive announcements. This year it also immediately followed the Salzburg summit and Theresa May's Brexit statement
There is plenty of new polling in today's papers, including two polls proporting to show that large numbers of people would vote for new political parties. One by BMG for the Huffington Post, claiming 58% of people would consider backing a new party at the next election, and
The regular Ipsos MORI political monitor came out in today's Evening Standard. Topline voting intention figures were CON 39%(+1), LAB 37%(-1), LDEM 13%(+3), UKIP 2%(-4). Fieldwork was Friday to Tuesday and changes are from MORI's last poll in July (they take a
On Monday the government tabled the final recommendations of the boundary review. As usual, I've done updated notional calculations for what the results of the 2017 election would have been if fought on the new constituency boundaries. They are viewable in full on a google spreadsheet on the
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