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Survation and YouGov both show drop in Tory support

There are two polls in this morning's papers - Survation in the Mail and YouGov in the Times. Survation have topline figures of CON 35%(-5), LAB 39%(+3), LDEM 10%(nc), UKIP 5%(nc). Fieldwork was on Friday, and changes are from mkid-February. YouGov have topline figures

By Anthony Wells 16 Mar 2019

Catching up on the weekend polls

There were two polls in the Sunday papers. ComRes had a poll conducted for BrexitExpress (a pro-Brexit pressure group) prominently but poorly reported in the Sunday Telegraph. The voting intention question included The Independent Group as an option, producing topline figures of CON 36%(-2), LAB 34%(-3), LDEM 8%

By Anthony Wells 11 Mar 2019

Latest voting intention polls & measuring potential TIG support

There are two new voting intention polls in the Sunday papers, tackling the issue of measuring TIG support in different ways... Deltapoll for the Mail on Sunday have standard voting intentions of CON 43%, LAB 36%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 5%. Respondents were then asked how they would vote if The

By Anthony Wells 24 Feb 2019

Survation and SkyData polls on the Independent Group

Today we've had the first two polls asking people about whether they'd support The Independent Group were they to stand candidates. Survation in the Daily Mail asked how people would vote if there was "a new centrist party opposed to Brexit", producing voting intention

By Anthony Wells 19 Feb 2019

YouGov MRP seat projection - CON 321, LAB 250, LDEM 16, SNP 39

Rather than their usual poll for the Times, this week YouGov have a full MRP model of voting intention (that is, the same method that YouGov used for their seat projection at the general election). Topline voting intention figures from the YouGov MRP model are CON 39%, LAB 34%, LDEM

By Anthony Wells 11 Feb 2019

Latest YouGov and Ipsos MORI voting intention polls

There are two new voting intention polls out today - YouGov for the Times, and Ipsos MORI's monthly political monitor in the Evening Standard. Ipsos MORI's topline figures are CON 38%(nc), LAB 38%(nc), LDEM 10%(+1), UKIP 4%(nc). Fieldwork was between Friday and

By Anthony Wells 07 Feb 2019

Opinium/Observer - CON 41, LAB 34, LDEM 8

Opinium's fortnightly poll in the Observer today has topline voting intention figures of CON 41%(+4), LAB 34%(-6), LDEM 8%(+1), UKIP 7%(nc). Fieldwork was between Wednesday and Friday, and changes are from Opinium's previous poll in mid-January, conducted straight after May lost her

By Anthony Wells 03 Feb 2019

Latest voting intention and the mystery of house effects

There have been several new polls with voting intention figures since the weekend, though all so far have been conducted before the government's defeat on their Brexit plan. ComRes/Express (14th-15th) - CON 37%(nc), LAB 39%(nc), LDEM 8%(-1), UKIP 7%(+1) YouGov/Times (13th-14th)-

By Anthony Wells 19 Jan 2019

Leaked Populus poll on how opposing Brexit would impact Labour support

The Guardian today has the results of a Populus poll for Best for Britain, apparently leaked without their permission. It found "almost a third" of respondents who would less likely to vote Labour if the party was committed to stopping Brexit, compared to 25% who said it would

By Anthony Wells 19 Jan 2019

Latest BMG and Survation voting intentions

The weekend papers have the first two polls with fieldwork conducted after the New Year - BMG in the Independent and Survation for yesterday's Mail. Voting intention in the two polls is: Survation: CON 38%(-1), LAB 41%(+1), LDEM 10%(+2), UKIP 4%(nc) BMG: CON 36%

By Anthony Wells 13 Jan 2019

Where public opinion stands

A brief update on the state of the polls as we head towards Christmas. First let look at voting intention. The six voting intention polls we've seen published so far in December have all shown the two main parties essentially neck and neck - two have shown tiny

By Anthony Wells 16 Dec 2018

Does Survation show the public warming towards the Brexit deal?

A brief note about the Survation poll in today's Mail. A lot of responses to this have really got the wrong end of the stick - the Daily Mail have, quite obviously, written it up with a very pro-deal slant and have not focused upon elements of the

By Anthony Wells 28 Nov 2018
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