Recent voting intention figures continue to show a moderate Conservative lead of between 6 and 9 points. Voting intention polls published so far this month are: * YouGov/Times (5th Aug) – CON 42, LAB 36, LD 8 * Redfield & Wilton (12th Aug) – CON 43, LAB 36, LD 9 * Ipsos MORI/Standard
The average Tory lead in June’s Voting intention polls so far is around 5 points, with the Tories in the low forties, Labour up in the high thirties. The level of party support appears to have settled down since the fading of the “rally round the flag” effect in
While much of our circumstances remain anything but normal – the outbreak continues and the country remains in partial lockdown – politics as usual has started to re-assert itself. Or at least it has in terms of public opinion. The rally around the flag period appears to have ended and people are
Support for the government’s handling of the outbreak remains high. While it has declined from an initial peak, far more people think the government are handling the issue well than badly (YouGov’s latest tracker has 58% saying the government are doing well, Opinium has 48% approve/36% disapprove)
In the last couple of days I’ve seen three polls asking about government handling of the Coronavirus. There was a short Yougov poll shared between Sky and the Times on Friday (here), a much longer YouGov poll in today’s Sunday Times (here), and an Opinium poll for this
Sky News have released a new YouGov poll of Labour party members and affiliated supporters for the leadership election. First preferences for leader stand at STARMER 53%, LONG BAILEY 31%, NANDY 16%. While on these figures Starmer would narrowly win on first preferences anyway, if you reallocate Nandy’s votes
Voting intention polling straight after a general election is probably the least interesting of any voting intention polling, especially a general election that has produced a decisive result. That goes all the more when two of the main parties have leadership contests, so voters don’t know who is going
I've been catching up on sleep after the election, but this is just to add a brief, post-election round up of how the polls performed. In 2015 and 2017 the equivalent posts were all about how the polls had got it wrong, and what might have caused it
It is the eve of the election and I'll be rounding up the final call polls here as they come in. YouGov already released their final call prediction last night in the form of their updated MRP projection. The voting intentions in the model were CON 43%, LAB
The final Sunday before the election. There should be plenty of polls out tonight (certainly we should see ComRes, YouGov, Deltapoll and Opinium - and perhaps others). I will update this post as they appear, and then round up at the end. The first to appear is SavantaComRes. Slightly confusingly
Below are the polls that have come out since the weekend. SavantaComRes/Telegraph (2nd-3rd Dec) - CON 42%(-1), LAB 32%(-1), LDEM 12%(-1), BREX 3%(-1) (tabs) YouGov/Times/Sky (2nd-3rd Dec) - CON 42%(-1), LAB 33%(-1), LDEM 12%(-1), BREX 4%(+2) (tabs) ICM/Reuters
General election campaigns provoke a lot of attention and criticism of opinion polls. Some of that is sensible and well-informed... and some of it is not. This is about the latter - a response to some of the more common criticisms that I see on social media. Polling methodology is
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