Sunny Hundal asks a very sensible question over on Liberal Conspiracy having looked at the figures from MORI's latest political monitor and seen the massive difference filtering the poll by likelihood to vote makes. While I certainly wouldn't dispute the importance of parties getting their votes
Tonight's YouGov poll has voting intentions of CON 40%, LAB 40%, LDEM 11%. My guess is that the underlying position is still a small Labour lead, and random error on this poll has pushed it a bit in the Tory direction much as that 5 point Labour lead
On YouGov's daily poll yesterday we asked about the "Twitter Joke Trial" - the prosecution of Paul Chambers who made a flippant comment on Twitter about blowing up Robin Hood Airport after getting fustrated by its closure, and ended up being hauled before the courts and
Ipsos MORI's monthly political monitor for Reuters has been published. This is the first November poll from a company other than YouGov - all the regular polls seem to be coming in the second half of the month these days. Topline figures with changes from last month are
Following two YouGov polls in a row showing a two point Labour lead, today's voting intention figures are CON 37%, LAB 42%, LDEM 10%. A five point Labour lead is the largest any pollster has shown since the general election (and the largest Labour lead since the election-that-never-was)
I used to occassionally link to awful newspaper reports of polling and give out the coverted UKPR prize for atrocious newspaper reporting of polls. I'm happy to report today that I can link to a journalist dealing properly with polling evidence, and actually going back to the archives
When yesterday's YouGov poll for the Sunday Times showed a two point Labour lead I gave my normal cautious "might yet just be margin of error, wait till tomorrow" type reaction. Well, today's YouGov voting intention poll for the Sun has voting intentions of
The full tables for YouGov's weekly poll for the Sunday Times are now up here. Things worth noting in the regular trackers are the continuing decline in Nick Clegg's approval ratings, now down to minus 14. Ed Miliband's approval rating is at plus 2,
YouGov's weekly poll for the Sunday Times has topline figures of CON 39%, LAB 41%, LDEM 10%. It's the first time YouGov have shown Labour ahead since the conference season. The normal caveats apply - it is just one poll, and it could be just as
A new YouGov poll for Channel 4 News yesterday found strong public support for many of the government's planned cuts to benefits. 73% of respondents supported the idea of making the long term unemployed do compulsory work placements or risk losing benefits, 66% supported withdrawing jobseekers allowance from
Tonight's YouGov/Sun voting intention figures are CON 42%, LAB 37%, LDEM 11%. A slightly larger Conservative lead than recently, but not necessarily anything meaningful - we've seen plenty of temporary blips along the same lines. While I'm here, an update from last night&
In YouGov's daily poll for the Sun yesterday we also asked for the first reactions to Phil Woolas being ejected from Parliament. 71% thought that the courts were right to expel Woolas, with only 7% thinking they had made the wrong decision. There was also very little sympathy
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