Ipsos MORI's monthly political monitor is out with topline figures of CON 32%(-1), LAB 46%(+3), LDEM 9%(nc). Changes are from MORI's October monitor. The 14 point Labour lead is the largest MORI have shown this Parliament and 46% the highest Labour have been,
Guido and the Spectator have a story up about a letter from Andrew Hawkins at ComRes accusing David Cameron of misrepresenting polling data over gay marriage. It seems to be an issue that keeps coming back, so I thought I may as well revisit the issue once again and look
Tomorrow we have some actual proper elections to look at - three by-elections, the new Police and Crime Commissioners across Wales and most of England, plus the Bristol mayoral election and the normal local government by-elections. The three Parliamentary by-elections are the two caused by the resignation of veteran Labour
This morning's YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 44%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 7%. The ten point Labour lead is right back to normal after what looks like an obvious outlier yesterday. Meanwhile the weekly poll from TNS BMRB also has a ten
Today's YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 39%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 8%. The four point lead looks very much like an outlier, so I would treat it will some scepticism unless later polls this week show a similar pattern. YouGov also repeated
Having written last week about the way that political trivia gets far more political coverage than hard politics it feels almost remiss of me not to have mentioned this YouGov polling from the middle of last week (indeed, if it wasn't for the BBC management's rapid
This week's YouGov results for the Sunday Times are online here. Topline voting intention is CON 32%, LAB 44%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 8% (so towards the higher end of the normal variation around a ten point lead). Approval ratings for the party leaders are minus 16 for David
One of the most important things in understanding public opinion on politics is quite how little attention most people pay to it. I constantly see comments in here asking what effect a news event will have on voting intention. Most of the time the answer is none. This is should
The US elections are over, so back to domestic concerns. The weekly TNS BMRB voting intention poll is out and shows very little movement from last week, topline figures are CON 31%, LAB 42%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 8%. Meanwhile the daily YouGov poll for the Sun this morning had topline
Tonight, you should hardly need telling, is US election night, so here's a thread for overnight discussion and some things to look out for tonight. First up a note about exit polls. Exit polls this year are only being conducted in 31 states rather than 50, they aren&
Media commentators seem to have caught up with the fact that UKIP are challenging for third place in the polls... except that it isn't quite a fact. As ever, the actual picture is more complicated and whether UKIP are competing for third place, or have secured third place,
This week's YouGov poll for the Sunday Times is up on the YouGov website here. Topline figures are CON 35%, LAB 42%, LD 9%, UKIP 7%, at the lower end of the normal YouGov range but probably just normal margin of error. The regular approval ratings for the
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