What sort of Brexit?
I'll be taking a break from the blog over the next week while I have a summer rest (I may pop in if something interesting happens, but I'm going to try not to), but before I go a quick pointer to something I wrote over on
Anthony Wells
Latest MORI and ICM polling
Ipsos MORI have released their monthly political monitor. It's their first poll since Theresa May became Prime Minister, so the changes since last month show the same honeymoon boost we've seen in other companies' figures. Topline figures are CON 45%(+9), LAB 34%(-1), LDEM
How badly is Jeremy Corbyn doing?
Labour's performance in polls and in mid-term elections has become a political football – not just the usual rather routine spinning of parties saying how well they are doing, but a key faultline in Labour's internal leadership battle. A key argument of Jeremy Corbyn's critics
Latest YouGov and TNS voting intentions
A wrote a few weeks ago that in the past the boost enjoyed by a Prime Minister taking over mid-term has often only lasted a month or so. The latest YouGov poll suggests that Theresa May's honeymoon is following the same pattern and has now started to fade.
YouGov/Times - CON 42, LAB 28, LD 8, UKIP 12
YouGov's latest voting intention figures in the Times this morning are CON 42%(+2), LAB 28%(nc), LDEM 8%(nc), UKIP 12%(-1), GRN 3%(-1). The changes since last week are not significant in themselves, but push the Conservatives to a fourteen point lead, the largest from
If Labour splits...
Over on the YouGov website I've written about an experiment we did looking at how the votes might fall in the event that the Labour party did split (the tabs are here). As I say in the article, this needs a thousand caveats - in what proportions has
YouGov Scottish Independence poll
YouGov released a new Scottish poll last night, their first poll on Scottish Independence since the EU referendum. Voting intention in another Independence referendum stands at YES 47%(+1), NO 53%(-1). Changes are from May and don't suggest any significant difference from before the EU referendum (tabs
Leadership honeymoons and ICMs latest poll
New party leaders normally enjoy a honeymoon in the polls. It's noticeable for leaders taking over in opposition, on the relatively rare occassion that the party leadership changes hands in government the honeymoon is often remarkable. In the last fifty years there have been three previous occasions when
Opinium/Observer - CON 37, LAB 31, LD 6, UKIP 15
There is a new Opinium poll in the Observer with topline figures of CON 37%(+3), LAB 31%(+2), LDEM 6%(-1), UKIP 15%(-2), GRN 4%(nc) - changes are from a month ago. The Conservatives have a healthy lead, but not the sort of big honeymoon lead that
What we can learn from the referendum polling
Almost a month on from the referendum campaign I've had chance to sit down and collect my thoughts about how the polls performed. This isn't necessarily a post about what went wrong since, as I wrote on the weekend after the referendum, for many pollsters nothing
YouGov members poll shows Corbyn beating Eagle or Smith by 20+ points
The Times tomorrow has fresh YouGov polling of Labour members suggesting Jeremy Corbyn is comfortably ahead of both challengers. Asked their first preference Jeremy Corbyn leads with 54% to Angela Eagle's 21% and Own Smith's 15%. Corbyn easily wins in a head-to-head run off against either
ICM/Sun on Sunday - CON 39, LAB 29, LD 9, UKIP 14
ICM have a new poll in the Sun on Sunday with topline figures of CON 39%(+1), LAB 29%(-1), LDEM 9%(+1), UKIP 14%(-1), GRN 4%(nc). This is the first poll conducted since Theresa May became Prime Minister, so may be expected to show a typical "