Had things worked out differently today would have been election day. What would have happened? Polls at the time of the non-election announcement showed the Conservative's advancing, and polls in recent days have shown them in the lead, albeit, not by enough to get an overall majority. If
ICM's monthly poll for the Guardian had topline figures, with changes from their last poll for the Sunday Telegraph in mid-October, of CON 40%(-3), LAB 35%(-1), LDEM 18%(+4). It appears to show a significant increase for the Lib Dems - ICM are the pollster who
A ComRes poll for the Independent tomorrow has topline voting intentions, with changes from their last poll, of CON 41%(+7), LAB 33%(-4), LDEM 16%(+1). In amongst the flurry of polls we've had over the last two months ComRes haven't polled since mid-September, back
A new Ipsos MORI poll for the Observer shows Labour back in the lead - the topline figures with changes from MORI's last poll (conducted for the Sun a fortnight ago) are CON 40%(-1), LAB 41%(+3), LDEM 13%(+2). Unlike YouGov's poll published on
YouGov's monthly poll for the Telegraph has topline voting intention figures, with changes from their last poll, of CON 41% (nc), LAB 38% (nc), LDEM 11% (nc). Clearly the figures are exactly the same as their last poll, conducted two and a half weeks ago for the Sunday
We await the next political opinion poll - hopefully tomorrow's Guardian will have one from ICM, though until Ming Campbell is replaced by a new Liberal Democrat leader we are once again in a sort of polling interregnum with a known unknown bearing down on us. There were
Back in the summer I wrote a piece titled "Why Voting Intention Polls Matter" largely about the Brown boost in the polls but making the point about the real importance of opinion polling in politics today. It isn't about predicting what the next election will be,
An ICM poll for tomorrow's Sunday Telegraph puts the Conservatives back into a commanding position. Conducted on the 10th and 11th October it is the first standard poll with fieldwork carried out over several days since the announcement that there would not be an election this year. The
CrosbyTextorPepper (the company of the Conservatives' 2005 election guru Lynton Crosby) have published the results of a poll of the 112 Conservative target seats they need to win to gain an overall majority (I believe they used my notional figures, so the list of seats polled is here. The
A new Ipsos MORI poll in Friday's Sun apparently has identical figures to the last YouGov poll, showing a big swing towards the Conservatives since their conference and putting them slightly ahead of Labour. The topline figures with changes from the previous Ipsos MORI poll, taken shortly after
A new Populus poll for the Times has topline voting intentions of CON 38%(+2), LAB 40%(+1), LDEM 12%(-3). The poll was conducted between Friday and Sunday, and the vast majority of the fieldwork was conducted before Gordon Brown announced there would not be an early election, so
The full tables from YouGov's Sunday Times poll are now up on the Sunday Times website. It leaves us in no doubt why Gordon Brown chose not to go to the country, the headline figures showing a Conservative lead of 3 points would resulted in Brown losing his
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