Anthony Wells - UK Polling Report (Page 20)

YouGov/Times - CON 44, LAB 25, LDEM 10, UKIP 11

YouGov's latest voting intention figures for the Times are CON 44%, LAB 25%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 11%. The nineteen point Conservative lead is the largest YouGov have given them in government, the 44% share of support the largest since the coalition's honeymoon back in 2010. The

Ipsos MORI show Scotland split 50-50 on independence

Ipsos MORI today released a new Scottish poll for STV, showing a 50%-50% tie between YES and NO were there to be a second independence referendum. This is the first poll not to show NO ahead for some time - there were a couple of snap polls immediately after

Election Data poll of Labour members

Ian Warren of Electiondata had published a new YouGov poll of Labour party members. Overall, it looks as if Jeremy Corbyn's suppport among the Labour membership is down a bit since last year... but that right now he'd likely be re-elected again. To some degree a

Polling for the Northern Ireland Assembly election

Despite the name of this site in practice it is often more GBPollingReport than UKPollingReport. The reality is that the overwhelming majority of opinion polls cover only Great Britain and exclude Northern Ireland. This is very much a historical legacy - the way things have always been - presumably because

Stoke and Copeland by-elections

Last night Labour held Stoke Central and lost Copeland to the Tories. As usual, by-elections don't tell us a huge amount about the bigger political picture, but are very important in setting the political narrative. By-elections are very unusual beasts. Because they don't decide who will

ICM/Guardian - CON 44, LAB 26, LD 8, UKIP 13

ICM's regular poll for the Guardian has topline figures of CON 44%(+2), LAB 26%(-1), LDEM 8%(-2), UKIP 13%(+1), GRN 4%(nc). The changes since the previous ICM poll aren't significant, but it's worth noting that the 18 point Conservative lead

Ipsos MORI/Standard - CON 40, LAB 29, LD 13, UKIP 9

Ipsos MORI's monthly political monitor for the Evening Standard came out earlier today. Topline voting intention figures are CON 40%(-3), LAB 29%(-2), LDEM 13%(+2), UKIP 9%(+3). The Tory lead remains pretty steady (note that the increase in the UKIP vote is probably largely a

Size alone is not enough - the tale of the Literary Digest

"But the sheer size of the survey [...] makes it of interest..." One of the most common errors in interpreting polls and surveys is the presumption that because something has a really huge sample size it is more meaningful. Or indeed, meaningful at all. Size isn't what

ComRes/Indy/Sunday Mirror - CON 41, LAB 26, LD 11, UKIP 11

ComRes have a poll in Sunday's Independent and the Sunday Mirror. Most interestingly, it found that people agreed by 45% to 39% that John Bercow was right to refuse to invite Donald Trump to address the Commons, but also that people thought by 47% to 37% that the

ICM/Guardian - CON 42, LAB 27, LD 10, UKIP 12

ICM's regular poll for the Guardian came out today, topline voting intention figures are CON 42%(nc), LAB 27%(+1), LDEM 10%(nc), UKIP 12%(-1), GRN 4%(-1). There is no significant change since a fortnight ago and the Conservatives retain a formidable lead. The poll also

BBC/Ipsos MORI poll on NHS funding

The BBC have quite a Ipsos MORI have quite a detailed poll on public attitudes towards funding the NHS. So far I think the BBC's coverage has only briefly mentioned it in relation to (predictable) public support for increasing the charges on foriegn visitors who use the NHS,

YouGov finds 49% think the Trump visit should go ahead

Petitions are a rubbish way of measuring public opinion. In fairness, that isn't actually their purpose - a petition is a way for individuals to record and express their opinion, a way of highlighting an issue and exerting pressure. They can indeed be very good at that job.