Friday round up

This morning's YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 31%, LAB 39%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 12%. That's the third poll in a row showing an eight point lead, so it looks as though the further narrowing at the start of the week was

Whither Boris?

Last week Lord Ashcroft released some new polling on Boris Johnson and I said I'd write more about him in a couple of days time. Alas I should have been quicker, for everyone is now busy fussing about Unite and Tom Watson, but the what the hell! I&

House effects - UPDATED

Last summer I did a post looking at the "house effects" of each polling company, that is - the party partisan effects of each company's methodology. We know, for example, that ICM reallocate their don't knows which helps the Lib Dems, that Survation prompt

YouGov/Sun - CON 33, LAB 38, LD 8, UKIP

This morning's YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 38%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 12%. It shows Labour's lead down to five points for the second YouGov poll in a row. I suspect these are two polls at the lower end of

Sunday polls

This week's YouGov poll for the Sunday Times is now up on their website here. Topline figures are CON 33%, LAB 38%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 11%. The five point Labour lead is their lowest this year (the last time YouGov's Labour lead was this small was

YouGov/Sun - CON 33, LAB 39, LD 10, UKIP 13

This morning's YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 39%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 13%. This is a bit more typical of YouGov's recent polling after a rather incongruous eleven point Labour lead in yesterday's poll - the underlying average

Young people are NOT suddenly all Conservatives

Last year I wrote an article on How Not To Report Opinion Polls. It included advice on ignoring small cross breaks, margins of error and not cherry-picking. That is, if there is a long data series with lots of noise and random error, don't pick out the one

Latest YouGov poll and today's spending review

This morning's YouGov poll for the Sun has topline voting intention figures of CON 32%, LAB 40%, LD 11%, UKIP 11%. The eleven points for UKIP is the lowest YouGov have shown since the local elections (indeed, its the lowest of any poll since then). All the usual

ComRes/Indy - CON 30, LAB 36, LD 10, UKIP 14

The monthly ComRes telephone poll for the Independent is out tonight, and has topline figures of CON 30%(nc), LAB 36%(+2), LDEM 10%(nc), UKIP 14%(-3). As with other recent polling ComRes show UKIP coming off the boil a bit after their post-local election high, but still well

YouGov/Sunday Times - CON 31, LAB 39, LD 10, UKIP 13

The weekly YouGov/Sunday Times results are now online here. Voting intention is CON 31%, LAB 39%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 13%. The leader ratings are Cameron minus 18 (up from minus 25 last week, and his best rating for a couple of months - perhaps on the back of statesmanlike

YouGov/Sun - CON 32, LAB 38, LD 10, UKIP 13

This morning's YouGov poll for the Sun had topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 38%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 13%. The six point Labour lead is their lowest from YouGov since the local elections (and equals the lowest this year - YouGov had a six point Labour lead and

YouGov/Sun - CON 31, LAB 38, LD 10, UKIP 12

This morning's YouGov poll for the Sun has topline voting intention figures of CON 31%, LAB 38%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 12% (so underlining once again how UKIP appear to have declined a bit from from their post-local election high, but are still enjoying substantially more support than earlier