It's been a long journey, but we've finally arrived at the eve-of-referendum polls. For a lot of the Scottish referendum campaign the discussion about polls was one of right or wrong - we had lots of polls showing the same trend (flatlining!), but showing different absolute
Two more final polls tonight. YouGov's final poll for the Sun and the Times has topline voting intention figures of YES 48%, NO 52% - reinforcing the general polling consensus around that figure. Fieldwork was Monday to Wednesday, with a sample size of 3000 or so. Meanwhile a
Ipsos MORI still have a final final poll to come in tomorrow's Evening Standard, but they also have a Scottish poll out tonight for STV. Topline voting intention figures with changes from their previous Scottish poll, right back at the start of August, are YES 49%(+7), NO
Panelbase's final call poll for the referendum is out and also has a 48/52 split. Full topline figures are YES 45%, NO 50%, Don't know 5%, which excluding don't knows becomes YES 48%, NO 52% - the same as in all three of
Two days to go until the referendum, and we starting to get the final "eve-of-election" polls. Three of them should be out tonight - ICM's final poll for the Scotsman, Opinium's final poll for the Telegraph and a Survation poll for the Daily Mail.
The Scottish polls at the end of last week and the weekend were broadly clustered around a small No lead. There are a couple of days campaigning left, but perhaps a more likely route to a YES victory is if the polls are underestimating the level of YES support for
As well as the Ashcroft and Populus polls earlier today we also have the monthly ICM poll for the Guardian tonight, reported here. Topline figures with changes from a month ago are CON 33%(+2), LAB 35%(-3), LDEM 10%(-2), UKIP 9%(-1), GRN 7%(+3). It shows a
A couple of tight polls today. The weekly telephone poll by Lord Ascroft has topline figures for CON 33%, LAB 33%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6% (tabs here). Meanwhile the twice-weekly online poll by Populus this morning had figures of CON 34%, LAB 35%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 13%, GRN
With what I assume are all Sunday's Scottish polls in, where do we stand? Looking across the board at all six companies polling, two of them using two different modes, we actually have a broadly consistent picture. Excluding don't knows, the Yes shares in the 8
It's the last Sunday before the referendum so we can expect several polls tonight (in fact, the chances are we'll get lots today, and then comparatively few until Wednesday when there will be a glut of eve-of-referendum polls). I am expecting at least three today -
This week will obviously be dominated by Scottish polling - we have Opinium's first Scottish referendum poll tonight, and possibly a Panelbase poll, and then final call polls from at least YouGov, MORI, Opinium and Survation next week. In the meantime though a quick detour to update the
I was expecting the ICM/Guardian Scottish poll this evening, but in fact it's popped out already here. Headline figures are YES 49%, NO 51% - joining all the other polls in showing NO ahead, but only by the tiniest of margins. Worth noting that this was a
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