Panelbase - YES 48, NO 52

Panelbase's final call poll for the referendum is out and also has a 48/52 split. Full topline figures are YES 45%, NO 50%, Don't know 5%, which excluding don't knows becomes YES 48%, NO 52% - the same as in all three of

Latest ICM, Survation and Opinium polls all show YES on 48%

Two days to go until the referendum, and we starting to get the final "eve-of-election" polls. Three of them should be out tonight - ICM's final poll for the Scotsman, Opinium's final poll for the Telegraph and a Survation poll for the Daily Mail.

Will the polls get the Scottish referendum right?

The Scottish polls at the end of last week and the weekend were broadly clustered around a small No lead. There are a couple of days campaigning left, but perhaps a more likely route to a YES victory is if the polls are underestimating the level of YES support for

ICM/Guardian - CON 33, LAB 35, LD 10, UKIP 9, GRN 7

As well as the Ashcroft and Populus polls earlier today we also have the monthly ICM poll for the Guardian tonight, reported here. Topline figures with changes from a month ago are CON 33%(+2), LAB 35%(-3), LDEM 10%(-2), UKIP 9%(-1), GRN 7%(+3). It shows a

Latest Ashcroft and Populus polls

A couple of tight polls today. The weekly telephone poll by Lord Ascroft has topline figures for CON 33%, LAB 33%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6% (tabs here). Meanwhile the twice-weekly online poll by Populus this morning had figures of CON 34%, LAB 35%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 13%, GRN

Scottish polling round up

With what I assume are all Sunday's Scottish polls in, where do we stand? Looking across the board at all six companies polling, two of them using two different modes, we actually have a broadly consistent picture. Excluding don't knows, the Yes shares in the 8

ICM, Opinium and Survation Scottish polls

It's the last Sunday before the referendum so we can expect several polls tonight (in fact, the chances are we'll get lots today, and then comparatively few until Wednesday when there will be a glut of eve-of-referendum polls). I am expecting at least three today -

Meanwhile, in GB polling...

This week will obviously be dominated by Scottish polling - we have Opinium's first Scottish referendum poll tonight, and possibly a Panelbase poll, and then final call polls from at least YouGov, MORI, Opinium and Survation next week. In the meantime though a quick detour to update the

ICM/Guardian Scotland poll - YES 49%, NO 51%

I was expecting the ICM/Guardian Scottish poll this evening, but in fact it's popped out already here. Headline figures are YES 49%, NO 51% - joining all the other polls in showing NO ahead, but only by the tiniest of margins. Worth noting that this was a

YouGov/Sun/Times Scottish poll - YES 48%, NO 52%

YouGov's penultimate Scottish poll before the referendum is out tonight (the last one being the eve-of-poll one next week). Topline figures, with changes from the weekend, are YES 48%(-3), NO 52%(+3) - the No campaign are once again ahead, but it remains within the margin of

Survation Scottish poll shows no movement

Survation have new Scottish poll out tonight for the Daily Record. Topline referendum figures are YES 42%, NO 48%, Don't know 10%. Without don't knows it works out at YES 47%(nc), NO 53%(nc) - exactly the same split as their previous poll at the

The next Scottish referendum polls

For the many people who keep on asking, here are the remaining Scottish referendum polls that I know about. It's not necessarily exhaustive, there may be other polls out there still to come, but it's the sum of my knowledge at the moment: There is a