Having made my way back from conference I've finally had a chance to look properly at Lord Ashcroft's latest batch of marginal seat polling, this time looking mostly at Liberal Democrat seats - both the LD-v-Con battleground and the LD-v-Lab battleground. Full details are here. Eleven
I'm about to head up to Birmingham, so won't necessarily be around much for the next few days (not least, when Lord Ashcroft releases his latest marginal poll at 2pm today I'll be on a train!), but here's a quick summary of
As part of his speech today Nigel Farage showed off polling for various target seats. A couple of the polls were just the figures from previous Ashcroft polls that showed UKIP doing well, but three are Survation polls for UKIP that we haven't seen before. They show UKIP
BBC Wales had a new ICM poll of Wales out this morning, conducted in the aftermath of the Scottish referendum. Westminister voting intentions in Wales, with changes from the previous ICM Welsh poll in February, are CON 23%(-1), LAB 38%(-4), LDEM 7%(-2), Plaid 13%(-1), UKIP 14%
We have our usual three Monday polls today: The weekly Lord Ashcroft poll has topline figures of CON 27%(-6), CON 33%(nc), LDEM 9%(nc), UKIP 17%(+3), GRN 6%(nc). The drop in Conservative support looks striking, but is probably largely a reversion to the mean after the
The weekly YouGov poll for the Sunday Times is up here and has topline figures of CON 31%, LAB 36%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 16%, GRN 5%. There are some questions on the political leaders (particularly Ed Miliband in advance of this week's Labour conference), but they show the
As I write there is still one council to declare, but the maths mean that the overall result is going to be Yes 45%, No 55%. So, how did the polls do? The final pre-election polls had all tightly converged around the same figures - Yes 48%, No 52%, with
As people have reported and grumbled, there is no proper exit poll tonight for the Scottish referendum (the defining feature of an exit poll is that it's done outside actual polling stations as people exit. They are very expensive, and no one commissioned one!). We are hence going
The very last pre-election poll of the referendum campaign is by Ipsos MORI, for the Standard, and has topline figures of YES 47%, NO 53%. Once again, it is bang in line with all other other companies, who to a man (or woman) have YES between 47%-49%, NO between
It's been a long journey, but we've finally arrived at the eve-of-referendum polls. For a lot of the Scottish referendum campaign the discussion about polls was one of right or wrong - we had lots of polls showing the same trend (flatlining!), but showing different absolute
Two more final polls tonight. YouGov's final poll for the Sun and the Times has topline voting intention figures of YES 48%, NO 52% - reinforcing the general polling consensus around that figure. Fieldwork was Monday to Wednesday, with a sample size of 3000 or so. Meanwhile a
Ipsos MORI still have a final final poll to come in tomorrow's Evening Standard, but they also have a Scottish poll out tonight for STV. Topline voting intention figures with changes from their previous Scottish poll, right back at the start of August, are YES 49%(+7), NO
Sign up to receive occasional updates from UK Polling Report.