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More Ashcroft Scottish polling

Lord Ashcroft has released a new batch of Scottish constituency polling. Full details are here. As regular readers will know, national polls in Scotland suggest an SNP landslide with no sign of the SNP lead narrowing as the election approaches. In fact the most recent Scottish polls from YouGov and

By Anthony Wells 17 Apr 2015

Latest MORI and Panelbase polls

Two new GB voting intention polls today, with the regular YouGov/Sun poll still to come. The two polls so far are both wholly in line with the overall average - Lab and Con pretty much neck-and-neck, with Labour just a tad ahead. Ipsos MORI's monthly political monitor

By Anthony Wells 16 Apr 2015

How badly are the Lib Dems doing in the South West?

ComRes have published a new poll of voting intentions in LD-Con seats in the South West for ITV. Full details are here. The topline figures are CON 44%, LAB 13%, LDEM 26%, UKIP 10%. Given these are all seats that the Liberal Democrats won in 2010 this is a huge

By Anthony Wells 15 Apr 2015
Phone and online differences

Phone and online differences

ComRes have an interesting post over on their site about differences between online and telephone polling so far this year (as well as making some extremely sensible points about the polls not being all over the place). As they correctly say, telephone polls this year have been showing a tiny

By Anthony Wells 14 Apr 2015

Latest Lord Ashcroft constituency polls

Lord Ashcroft has a new batch of constituency polls out, this time looking at ten Conservative held seats with majorities of around 9% to 12% - seats that would need a Con>Lab swing of around about 5% to fall to Labour. Full details are here. National opinion polls

By Anthony Wells 14 Apr 2015

Latest ICM, Ashcroft and Populus polls

The worst thing you can do in analysing polls of voting intention is to get excited at polls that show something exciting and different and ignore those that show the same old pattern. Occassionally the unusual poll will herald a genuine movement in public opinion - after all, whenever there

By Anthony Wells 13 Apr 2015

More from the YouGov/Sunday Times poll

The full results of YouGov's weekly Sunday Times poll are now up here. Topline figures are CON 34%, LAB 34%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 13%, GRN 6%. The rest of the poll dealt mainly with perceptions of Labour and the Conservatives on tax, spending and business, plus the row

By Anthony Wells 12 Apr 2015

Saturday night Opinium and YouGov polls

There are two polls for tomorrow's Sunday papers, YouGov in the Sunday Times and Opinium in the Observer. Neither suggests anything other than business as usual. YouGov in the Sunday Times have topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 34%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 13%, GRN 6%. Opinium have topline

By Anthony Wells 11 Apr 2015

Four weeks to go

Here are this week's polls - slightly fewer than usual because of the Easter bank holiday, meaning we didn't get the usual Ashcroft poll on Monday. Survation/Mirror (3/4) - CON 31%, LAB 33%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 18%, GRN 3% Opinium/Observer (3/4) -

By Anthony Wells 10 Apr 2015

A flurry of Thursday polls...

After a quiet start to the week today is turning out to be a busy day for polling, with new polls so far from Panelbase, TNS and Survation and ComRes and YouGov still to come. Here's the rundown on what today's polls so far show: TNS

By Anthony Wells 09 Apr 2015

Lord Ashcroft re-visits some Con-Lab marginals

Lord Ashcroft released a new batch of constituency polls this afternoon, this time returning to ten Conservative -vs- Labour seats where he found a tight battle last time round. Full details are here. I normally look at the average swing across the groups of seats that Lord Ashcroft polls, but

By Anthony Wells 08 Apr 2015

Tuesday polls

The bank holiday yesterday means we didn't get our usual rush of Monday polling - while there's no real concrete evidence that doing poll fieldwork over a bank holiday produces odd results, polling companies tend to avoid it just in case. This means there was no

By Anthony Wells 07 Apr 2015
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