The Sun this morning have YouGov voting intention figures - their first since the election - of CON 41%, LAB 30%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 13%, GRN 4%. Note that in terms of methodology, the figures are past vote weighted to the election result for the time being, obviously the pollsters
Just a quick line to point out that the Constituency guide part of the site has now been updated to reflect the general election results and the new MPs elected, including the target and defence lists for the parties (SNP and UKIP to follow). Before anyone points it out there&
The day after the election the British Polling Council announced it was going to have an inquiry into what went wrong with the polls, we've now got some more information about how the inquiry is going to proceed. Over on the National Centre for Research Methods website they
Opinion polls are a little light at the moment, and probably will be for the next few weeks. Even at the best of times there is little polling in the weeks immediately following a general election - we've just had an actual general election to judge people'
A few people have asked me if I know where there is a spreadsheet of the general election results available so they can crunch the numbers and explore results themselves. Until now I've been using results scraped off the BBC website, but the British Election Study team have
Stephen Bush over at the New Statesman has written an interesting article about the mountain that faces Labour at the next election. I've now had chance to sit down and play with the election results and the picture is as bleak for Labour as Stephen paints - for
We don't have any more information on how the British Polling Council's review of the election polls will progress beyond it being chaired by Pat Sturgis, but several pollsters have given some thoughts today beyond the initial "We got it wrong and we'll
The election of a majority Conservative government means that the Parliamentary boundary review will presumably go ahead on the rules passed under the last government, but delayed by the Liberal Democrats (the review that was started in the last Parliament was abandoned before it was completed after the law was
I’ve just got back from the BBC after working all night (you may have seen my bald spot sat just to the left of Emily Maitlis’s big touchscreen last night) and am about to go and put my feet up and have a rest – I’ll leave other
Most pollsters produced their final polls last night, ready to go in the first edition of whichever paper commissioned them. Today we have the final few companies - Ipsos MORI, who do polling for the Evening Standard so always publish on election day itself, Populus and Ashcroft, who do their
The day is almost upon us. Tonight we will be getting final call polls from most of the companies - though MORI and Lord Ashcroft's figures won't be released until tomorrow morning. In total eleven companies have polled during the campaign, I'd expect to
It's a truism that there isn't one election on May 7th, there are 650. However, the brutal reality is that lots of them will behave much the same in terms of swing, and that in lots of them the outcome is a virtual certainty and they
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