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The polling post-mortem - some pollsters' thoughts

We don't have any more information on how the British Polling Council's review of the election polls will progress beyond it being chaired by Pat Sturgis, but several pollsters have given some thoughts today beyond the initial "We got it wrong and we'll

By Anthony Wells 11 May 2015

What the election would have looked like on the new boundaries

The election of a majority Conservative government means that the Parliamentary boundary review will presumably go ahead on the rules passed under the last government, but delayed by the Liberal Democrats (the review that was started in the last Parliament was abandoned before it was completed after the law was

By Anthony Wells 09 May 2015

Back from the election

I’ve just got back from the BBC after working all night (you may have seen my bald spot sat just to the left of Emily Maitlis’s big touchscreen last night) and am about to go and put my feet up and have a rest – I’ll leave other

By Anthony Wells 08 May 2015

The final four polls

Most pollsters produced their final polls last night, ready to go in the first edition of whichever paper commissioned them. Today we have the final few companies - Ipsos MORI, who do polling for the Evening Standard so always publish on election day itself, Populus and Ashcroft, who do their

By Anthony Wells 07 May 2015

FINAL POLLS

The day is almost upon us. Tonight we will be getting final call polls from most of the companies - though MORI and Lord Ashcroft's figures won't be released until tomorrow morning. In total eleven companies have polled during the campaign, I'd expect to

By Anthony Wells 06 May 2015
The election battlegrounds... and a prediction

The election battlegrounds... and a prediction

It's a truism that there isn't one election on May 7th, there are 650. However, the brutal reality is that lots of them will behave much the same in terms of swing, and that in lots of them the outcome is a virtual certainty and they

By Anthony Wells 05 May 2015

Penultimate polls...

Two days to go. The huge rush in final polls won't be until tomorrow, but there are still a fair number of polls out today. I don't think any of them are proper final calls yet - most companies will produce their eve-of-election numbers tomorrow or

By Anthony Wells 05 May 2015

ICM poll of Sheffield Hallam

ICM have released a new constituency poll of Sheffield Hallam, conducted for the Guardian. It shows Nick Clegg holding on to his seat by a margin of seven points over Labour when respondents are asked a voting intention question that includes the names of the candidates standing. Full details are

By Anthony Wells 04 May 2015

More from the Sunday polls

The YouGov/Sunday Times poll had some questions trying to tease out people's perceptions of who has the best claim to be PM in a hung Parliament. This is, obviously, not necessarily the same thing as who will be. Much of the discussion I've seen on

By Anthony Wells 03 May 2015

This Sunday's polls

We have good four or five polls in the final Sunday papers before the election, here is what's appeared so far: Opinium in the Observer continue to show a very tight race, in this case with the Conservatives just ahead. Topline figures are CON 35%, LAB 34%, LDEM

By Anthony Wells 02 May 2015

Royal baby bounce?

There won't be one. Stop being silly. If you'd like a longer answer. The birth of Prince George had no discernible effect upon the polls, the Royal Wedding had no discernible effect. The Diamond Jubilee was followed by a couple of polls with a reduced Labour

By Anthony Wells 02 May 2015

Friday polling round up

So far we've had two new GB polls today, both continuing to show the race pretty much neck-and-neck: Populus's twice-weekly poll has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 33%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 15%, GRN 4% (tabs). Note that Populus appear to have made a slight methodology

By Anthony Wells 01 May 2015
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