Jon Mellon and Chris Prosser from the British Election Study team have written a new post and paper on the emerging evidence from the BES data on what went wrong with the polls. Last month they wrote a piece, which I covered here, on some of the potential causes of
While the polling inquiry continues and we all work out what went wrong the Guardian aren't publishing their ICM/Guardian polls, but they are still being done. Martin Boon has tweeted July's results, which have topline figures of CON 38%, LAB 34%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 13%
YouGov have their immediate post budget poll out tonight here, overall the budget was seen as fair by 43% of people, unfair by 33%. Compared to Osborne's past budgets this is pretty so-so, the net rating is less positive than his last two budgets, but better than the
Straight after the Greek referendum was announced actual polling evidence seemed quite light, but there has now been the expected rush in polling. Polls from a handful of different companies are all painting a consistent picture of YES and NO being neck and neck. In fieldwork conducted on Monday and
On Sunday there is a referendum in Greece on whether to accept the deal that was put to the Greek government before negotiations broke down (or at least, there was as I write, who knows what the position will be by the time you read this). What can the polling
Labour leadership Regular polling remains sparse given the ongoing inquiry and that we're in that odd sort of political interregnum with Labour yet to elect their new leaders, but there have been a couple of polls on the Labour contest and the EU. A new ORB poll on
On Friday the BPC/MRS inquiry into the polls at the 2015 started rolling. The inquiry team had their first formal meeting in the morning and in the afternoon there was a public meeting, addressed by representatives of most of the main polling companies. It wasn't a meeting
Ipsos MORI's monthly political monitor is out, their first since the election. Topline figures are CON 39%, LAB 30%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 8%, GRN 6%. As with other recent voting intention polls, the figures themselves are perhaps less interesting than the methodology changes. In the case of Ipsos
The Guardian themselves seem to have put a pause on reporting their polls, but they are wisely continuing to commission their series of ICM/Guardian polls so as not to leave a gap in the data. Topline figures in the first post-election ICM poll are CON 37%, LAB 31%, LDEM
The best estimates of how Britain's ethnic minorities voted in the 2010 election, taken from the Ethnic Minority British Election Study, are CON 16%, LAB 68%. Last month British Future released a report, based on Survation polling, that suggested that ethnic minority voters in 2015 split CON 33%
Next Friday is the public meeting of the British Polling Council inquiry into the failure of the polls at the 2015 election, at which point I expect we'll get some insight into what the different polling companies are thinking, though probably not many firm conclusions yet. In the
TNS have released what I think is the first Scottish voting intention poll since the election. Prior to May Scottish polls concentrated on Westminster voting intentions (though many asked both Westminster and Holyrood), the focus now shifts over to Holyrood intentions ahead of next May's election. Voting intentions
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