Previewing the EU referendum battle

Over on the YouGov website I've written a long piece looking at how the ground lies ahead of the European referendum campaign - what the breakdown of support and opposition currently is, how people perceive those who support and oppose Europe, how effective the arguments might be and

Latest ComRes and YouGov polls

ComRes and YouGov both had post-Corbyn polls in the Indy on Sunday/Sunday Mirror and Sunday Times respectively. Tabs are here - Comres, YouGov. ComRes had topline voting intention figures of CON 42% (+2), LAB 30%(+1), LDEM 7%(-1), UKIP 13%(nc), GRN 3%(-1). Changes are since their

Interpreting more or less likely to vote questions

I really don't like "does X make you more or less likely to vote" questions. On policy questions they are particularly abhorrent as they are used to try and measure salience - or more often, to try and deliberately overstate the salience of an issue. It&

First YouGov polling on Corbyn

YouGov had a poll in this morning's Times asking some first impressions of Jeremy Corbyn from what people had seen so far (tables here). 31% of people said they were delighted or pleased by Corbyn's victory, 34% of people were disappointed or dismayed - 35% had

A year since the Scottish referendum

Friday is the anniversary of the Scottish independence referendum, so we've had a flux of Scottish polls over the weekend from YouGov, Panelbase and Survation. They mostly covered the same ground - should there be another referendum and how would people vote, and how people will vote in

ICM/Guardian - CON 38, LAB 32, LDEM 8, UKIP 13, GRN 3

ICM's monthly poll for the Guardian is out today and has topline figures of CON 38%(-2), LAB 32%(+1), LDEM 8%(+1), UKIP 13%(+3), GRN 3%(-1). The full tables are on their website here. The fieldwork for the poll was Friday to Sunday, meaning just

Jeremy Corbyn wins

Jeremy Corbyn has, as expected, won the Labour leadership election. I say as expected but the reality is we didn't actually have that much evidence to go on during the campaign - noise on Twitter and size of crowds at campaign meetings are bunk, the reports of what

Has Britain become more welcoming towards refugees?

The issue of how to respond to refugees fleeing from the war in Syria has been rumbling on for months, but became far more of an issue last week because of photographs of the body of toddler Aylan Kurdi washed up on a Turkish beach and media coverage of groups

The European referendum question

I've been on holiday for the last week, but hopefully haven't missed too much polling in the August after a general election! One thing that did happen was the Electoral Commission recommending (and the government accepting) a change in the wording of the EU referendum, from

ComRes/Daily Mail - CON 42, LAB 28, LDEM 8, UKIP 9, GRN 6

ComRes's monthly telephone poll for the Daily Mail is out today and has topline figures of CON 42%, LAB 28%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 9%, GRN 6%. The last time the Conservatives reached the heights of 42% in any poll was way back in 2010. Full tables for the

Can polls tell us how well Corbyn would do in a general election?

With the window for taking part in Labour leadership election closing and ballot papers going out there were several polls over the weekend asking about the leadership candidates, though no fresh polling of people voting in the actual contest. ComRes, Opinium and Survation all had polls asking about the general

ICM/Guardian - CON 40, LAB 31, LDEM 7, UKIP 10, GRN 4

ICM have released their August poll for the Guardian. Topline voting intention figures are CON 40%, LAB 31%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 10%, GRN 4%. Full tables are here. This is the first ICM poll since the election to feature an updated methodology in light of the polling error. Since 1993