One day I'm going to write a generic post by-election post labelled (insert constituency name here) that I can repost after every by-election. Until that day, here's my traditional answer to what last night's by-election tells us about the national political picture: not much.
YouGov and the Times have some fresh Syria polling tonight, conducted on Monday evening and during the day on Tuesday. It shows a sharp drop in support for airstrikes since YouGov's polling a week ago, but the overall balance of opinion is still in favour: 48% now support
I thought it a good opportunity to provide a round up of the available evidence we have about what the public think of airstrikes against Islamic State in Syria... and to give a reminder to people of what is NOT good evidence. First, here's the recent polling evidence:
YouGov have published some fresh polling on Syria to coincide with David Cameron's statement today, though the fieldwork obviously preceded it. Approval for British participation in air strikes against ISIS in Syria now stands at 59%, 20% would disapprove. Asked about sending British and American ground troops back
Today's Times has a new YouGov poll of Labour party members and registered supporters (so members, registered trade unionists and £3 supporters - the same group who were able to vote in the Labour leadership election). Full tabs are here. 65% thought Jeremy Corbyn was doing well as
ComRes have their monthly online poll for the Independent on Sunday & Sunday Mirror out tonight. Topline figures are CON 42%(nc), LAB 27%(-2), LDEM 7%(nc), UKIP 15(+2), GRN 3%(nc). You have to go all the way back to 2010 to find a lower Labour
Ipsos MORI's monthly political monitor for the Standard is out today - topline figures with changes from last month are CON 41%(+5), LAB 34%(+2), LDEM 7%(-3), UKIP 7%(-5), GRN 4%(+1). The big drop in UKIP support is probably nothing, last month's
YouGov have some polling for the Times on attitudes to terrorism and Syria following the attack on Paris. The full results are here, and the Times's write up is here. There are two important findings in there. One is attitudes towards Syrian refugees. Back in September YouGov found
A quick note on two EU referendum polls from the end of last week. One was by Survation, conducted for the Leave.EU campaign - tables are here. Topline figures there were Remain 47%, Leave 53%. This is interesting mostly because it shows a lead for Leave when the overwhelming
One of the key bits of evidence on why the polls got it wrong has today popped into the public domain - the British Election Study face to face survey. The data itself is downloadable here if you have SPSS or Stata, and the BES team have written about it
Things remain very quiet on the polling front, but we do at least have the weekly ICM tracker of EU referendum voting intention. Latest figures are REMAIN 46%, LEAVE 38%. 46% is the highest ICM have recorded for Remain in their weekly tracker, though it's still well within
The referendum on EU membership will naturally cover the whole of the United Kingdom, but the vast majority of polling covers only Great Britain. This is because Northern Irish politics are so radically different from the rest of the UK. I suppose in some cases one could make a similar
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