A quick note on two EU referendum polls from the end of last week. One was by Survation, conducted for the Leave.EU campaign - tables are here. Topline figures there were Remain 47%, Leave 53%. This is interesting mostly because it shows a lead for Leave when the overwhelming
One of the key bits of evidence on why the polls got it wrong has today popped into the public domain - the British Election Study face to face survey. The data itself is downloadable here if you have SPSS or Stata, and the BES team have written about it
Things remain very quiet on the polling front, but we do at least have the weekly ICM tracker of EU referendum voting intention. Latest figures are REMAIN 46%, LEAVE 38%. 46% is the highest ICM have recorded for Remain in their weekly tracker, though it's still well within
The referendum on EU membership will naturally cover the whole of the United Kingdom, but the vast majority of polling covers only Great Britain. This is because Northern Irish politics are so radically different from the rest of the UK. I suppose in some cases one could make a similar
We have two new voting intention polls today. First is a telephone poll from ComRes for the Daily Mail - topline figures are CON 38%(-1), LAB 33%(+3), LDEM 8%(-1), UKIP 10%(-2), GRN 3%(-1). Since introducing their new turnout model based on socio-economic factors ComRes have
A quick note on the Individual Electoral Registration vote tonight and what it means, since I fear it will be badly reported elsewhere. As readers may know, electoral registration has now moved over from household registration (where one member of the household filled in a form to register everyone) to
YouGov have some polling out on attitudes towards the government's tax credit changes - full tabs are here. They suggest that the policy is seen as unfair, and seen as likely to have a negative financial effect upon most recipients... but people are evely divided on whether it
Back in 2012 I wrote about the Observer reporting an open-access poll on a website campaigning against the government's health bill as if it was representative of members of the Royal College of Physicians. I also wrote to the Observer's readers' editor, Stephen Pritchard, who
ICM's latest weekly tracker on the EU referendum has voting intentions of REMAIN 44%(-1), LEAVE 38%(+2). The gap has narrowed since last week, but doesn't reflect any real trend: looking at ICM's EU polls since the referendum wording was changed they'
EU Membership Referendum Referendum Question/voting intention Polls asking referendum voting intention including the wording of the proposed referendum. Note that the wording of the question was changed from September 2015 on the recommendation of the Electoral Commission. DateRemainLeaveWNV or DKRemainLeave Survation/IG20/6/20164544115149 YouGov/Times19/6/20164244134951 ORB/
ComRes's monthly online poll for the Independent on Sunday is out today and has topline figures of CON 42%(nc), LAB 29%(-1), LDEM 7%(nc), UKIP 13%(nc), GRN 3%(nc). There is no significant change in support since last month. For those intrigued by the big
The biggest political news story today is the government's decision to allow the opening of a de facto new grammar school in Kent (it's illegal to actually open a new grammar school, so technically it's a second site for an existing grammar school in
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