Last week there were several EU referendum polls showing movement towards Remain. Individually the changes were not significant, but collectively it was starting to look as though something may be afoot. Today we've had two referendum polls from ORB and ICM with movement in the other direction, suggesting
The Evening Standard had a new YouGov London poll today, showing a commanding lead for Sadiq Khan in the mayoral race. First round voting intentions are KHAN 48%, GOLDSMITH 32%, WHITTLE 7%, BERRY 6%, PIDGEON 5%. After reallocating the second preferences of eliminated candidates Sadiq Khan wins by twenty points
MORI have published their monthly political monitor - full details are here. The topline voting intention figures are CON 38%(+2), LAB 35%(+1), LDEM 6%(-4), UKIP 11%(nc), GRN 3%(nc). The Conservatives retain a narrow lead, but not significantly different from last month. Referendum voting intention stands
This month ICM have done parallel telephone and online polls. For voting intention the figures are almost exactly the same - topline figures are ICM Phone: CON 38%, LAB 33%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 13%, GRN 3% ICM Online: CON 36%, LAB 31%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 16%, GRN 4% ICM have
A quick update on polls in the weekend papers. The Independent on Sunday is no more, but the Sunday edition of the Indy's website seems to be continuing with their monthly ComRes online poll (shared with the Sunday Mirror). Topline voting intention figures are CON 35%(-3), LAB
This morning's Times had a new YouGov poll, full tables are here. Topline voting intention was CON 31%, LAB 34%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 17%, GRN 3%. The poll follows a torrid few weeks for the Conservative party - a badly received budget, IDS's resignation, the Tata
YouGov have published new polls in both Scotland and Wales in the last couple of days. Taking Wales first, topline voting intention figures for the Welsh Assembly are CON 19%(-3), LAB 35%(+1), LDEM 6%(nc), UKIP 17%(+2), Plaid 21%(nc) for the constituency vote and CON 20%
At the weekend the Sunday Times reported a new ICM poll of British Muslims, conducted for a Channel Four documentary later this week. I've written about polls of ethnic and religious minorities in Britain here before - they tend be both controversial and extremely difficult to do. On
ComRes published a new London poll yesterday. As with all the other recent London polling we've seen it puts Sadiq Khan in a relatively comfortable first place. First preference votes are KHAN 44%(+2), GOLDSMITH 37%(-2), PIDGEON 7%(+1), WHITTLE 5%(nc), BERRY 4%(-2), GALLOWAY 2%
Two new GB voting intention polls over the last couple of days. Opinium in the Observer had topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 32%, LDEM 5%, UKIP 17%, GRN 4% (full tabs are here). Meanwhile BMG released some new GB voting intention figures today: their toplines are CON 36%(-2)
In January the BPC inquiry team announced their initial findings on what went wrong in the general election polls. Today they have published their full final report. The overall conclusions haven't changed, we've just got a lot more detail. For a report about polling methodology written
While the gap between online and telephone polls on the EU referendum has narrowed of late, it is still there, and Populus have put out an interesting paper looking at possible explanations and written by James Kanagasooriam of Populus and Matt Singh of Number Cruncher Politics. The full paper is
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