Opinium's weekly poll for the Observer has topline figures of REMAIN 44%(nc), LEAVE 44%(+2), so split right down the middle. The fieldwork was conducted between Tuesday and Friday, but the majority was before the murder of Jo Cox. Full tabs are here. This isn't
BMG were supposed to put out their final EU poll yesterday, but it was put back for a day because of the murder of Jo Cox and eventually emerged this morning. BMG carried out parallel telephone and online polls, and unlike ICM who no longer find any difference at at
Ipsos MORI's telephone poll for the Standard is out and now also shows Leave ahead. Topline figures are LEAVE 53%, REMAIN 47% among likely voters. On paper this is a huge shift - MORI's previous poll had an eighteen point lead for Remain among all voters
Two more polls today, two more significant swings towards Leave: TNS's latest poll, conducted online, has topline figures of REMAIN 40%(-1), LEAVE 47%(+4), Undecided or Wouldn't Vote 13%(-3). The changes since their previous poll in mid-May probably understate the move towards Leave a
YouGov and ORB have new polls in the Tuesday newspapers. YouGov in the Times have topline figures of REMAIN 39%, LEAVE 46%, Don't know or won't vote 15%. This equates to an eight point LEAVE lead once the don't knows are excluded, the largest
Two weeks ago ICM produced an unexpected result - they did parallel phone and online polls for the Guardian, and found a five point lead for LEAVE in both online and by phone. A five point lead for leave in an online poll was slightly unusual, but not completely out
There are two EU referendum polls in the Sunday papers - YouGov in the Sunday Times and Opinium in the Observer. Both of them have the race neck-and-neck: YouGov have REMAIN 49%, LEAVE 51%, Opinium have REMAIN 51%, LEAVE 49%. Tables for YouGov are here, for Opinium are here. In
ORB have a new poll out tonight for the Independent showing a ten point lead for leave: REMAIN 45%(-4), LEAVE 55%(+4). Changes are since their last comparable poll, all the way back in April. Unlike the weekly ORB telephone polls for the Telegraph, their more infrequent polls for
Today we got three more EU referendum polls. A new YouGov poll for Good Morning Britain, conducted in the middle of last week, echoed the trend we've seen towards Leave. Their topline figures are REMAIN 41%, LEAVE 45%, Don't know/Won't vote 15%. Full
Opinium have a new EU referendum poll in the Observer. The topline figures are REMAIN 43%, LEAVE 41%, Don't know 14%... if you get the data from Opinium's own site (the full tabs are here). If you read the reports of the poll on the Observer
Following the FT story about hedge funds and exit polls, it's probably worth setting out some facts about exit polling and the referendum. I have not a clue whether the FT story is correct, but for those interested here's what we can say about exit polls
There are three new EU referendum polls today, a telephone poll from ORB and parallel phone and online polls from ICM. The ORB poll for the Telegraph has topline figures of REMAIN 51%(-4), LEAVE 46%(+4), Don't know 3%(nc) - full tables are here. The Telegraph
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