If I could teach people one thing about public opinion it would be how little most of the political soap-opera actually matters. Lots of the stories that obsess the Westminster media hardly break through to the public at all. Those people who do notice it tend to be the most
Two new voting intention polls out today, one from ICM in the Guardian and one from YouGov in the Times. Topline figures from ICM are CON 39%(-1), LAB 40%(-1), LDEM 7%(-1), UKIP 6%(+1). Fieldwork was Friday to Sunday, and changes are from a fortnight ago. Clearly
A quick update on recent voting intention polls. When I last updated in mid-July, there was a clear trend towards Labour across the polling companies, with YouGov, Opinium, Deltapoll all showing the Conservatives dropping backing significantly in the wake of the Johnson & Davis resignations (whether one attributes that
YouGov's regular poll for the Times this week shows another Labour lead, with topline figures of CON 36%(-1), LAB 41%(+2), LDEM 9%(-1), UKIP 7%(+1). Fieldwork was on Monday and Tuesday, and changes are from the middle of last week. We've now had
Following the midweek YouGov poll, there are two more polls in today's papers showing the Conservatives falling back behind Labour in the wake of the cabinet Brexit "deal" and the Davis/Johnson resignations. Opinum in the Observer, conducted between Tuesday and Friday, has topline figures of
YouGov have a new poll in the Times tonight conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday, after the resignations of David Davis and Boris Johnson. It suggests public opinon is breaking against the Chequers Brexit deal, and that public confidence in the government's handling of Brexit is falling ever further.
The weekly YouGov poll for the Times this morning has topline figures of CON 39%(-2), LAB 39%(-1), LDEM 9%(nc), UKIP 5%(+2). Fieldwork was on Sunday and Monday, mostly on Sunday afternoon and evening. The changes themselves are not signficant, but the disappearing Tory lead echoes the
Voting intention polls over the last fortnight have been showing the same pattern that we've become used to over the last four month: Conservative and Labour very close to each other in support, with the Tories averaging a very small lead. Survation/GMB (20th June) - CON 41,
This week's YouGov poll for the Times has topline figures of CON 42%(nc), LAB 40%(+1), LDEM 9%(nc). Fieldwork was Monday and Tuesday and changes are from last week. The two point lead is a little lower than YouGov have been showing of late, but nothing
YouGov's weekly poll for the Times is out tonight (Times report here). Topline voting intention figures are CON 42%(-2), LAB 39%(+2), LDEM 8%(nc), returning to more run-of-the-mill figures after the unusual seven point outlier last week. Fieldwork was Monday and Tuesday. Just 21% of people
A year since the election, we have two new GB voting intention polls (from YouGov and Survation) and a new Scottish poll (also from YouGov) today. Looking at the YouGov/Times GB poll first, voting intentions are CON 44%(+2), LAB 37%(-2), LDEM 8%(-1). The seven point Conservative
It is year since the 2017 general election. I am sure lots of people will be writing a lot of articles looking back at the election itself and the year since, but I thought I'd write a something about the 2017 polling error, something that has gone largely
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