A very quick update on voting intention polls over the last few weeks. As usual August is a relatively quiet period - opinion pollsters have holidays too. The fact that we have a new Prime Minister hasn't made much change to that. In August so far we'
So far we have had six opinion polls since Boris Johnson became Prime Minister, from Ipsos MORI, Deltapoll, Opinium, ComRes and two from YouGov (one for the Sunday Times, one for the Times). Voting intentions from them all are below. YouGov (30 Jul) - CON 32%, LAB 22%, LDEM 19%
ComRes have a new poll out in the Telegraph. Topline voting intention figures with changes from last month are CON 25%(+2), LAB 28%(+1), LDEM 16%(-1), BREX 19%(-3). The Telegraph headline their report on hypothetical questions asking how people would vote if Boris Johnson was Tory leader,
On Saturday YouGov released a new poll of Tory party members for the Times, timed to coincide with ballot papers going out and members actually starting to cast their votes. If the race was to be in any way close it would really need to have shown a substantial drop
I am a little cautious of the value of voting intention polls at this point, we can expect the appointment of a new Prime Minister to have a significant impact on political support, so voting intention polls right now seem a trifle redundant. However, for what they are worth there
Polling in the weekend papers is dominated by the Conservative leadership race. The Mail on Sunday has a Survation poll, or more to the point, two Survation polls. A full one conducted on Wednesday and Thursday and then a second one conducted on Saturday after the news story of the
There are two very different elements to polling of the conservative leadership race: polling of Conservative party members - used for predicting who is going to win, and polling of the general public, which is generally being used to argue about the electoral appeal of the different candidates. Let'
To start with, here's an update of all the pre-election polls (Ipsos MORI, Survation and NCPolitics all published theirs on the morning of election day, after my last post). Note that ComRes and Hanbury also produced polls during the campaign, but not with fieldwork conducted on or after
A quick post about the YouGov poll in Friday's Times. Topline Westminster voting intention figures are CON 19%, LAB 19%, LDEM 24%, BREXIT 22%. These are obviously startling figures, unprecedented even. There are historical examples of third parties taking the lead (Cleggmania, for example, or the early successes
There are five polls with fieldwork conducted at least partially since the weekend - I don't know if there are more to come overnight (I think there may be at least one more. ComRes and Survation have both polled during the campaign, but I don't know
The Times have released a new YouGov poll of party members - the report is here and the tables here. Theresa May's time is essentially up. Party members are normally the loyalist of the loyal, but even here there are few good words to be said. Only 20%
Today's Sunday papers have the first polls conducted since the local elections, from Opinium and ComRes. Opinium for the Observer have Westminster voting intentions of CON 22%(-4), LAB 28%(-5), LDEM 11%(+5), BREX 21%(+4), GRN 6%(+2), ChUK 4%(nc), UKIP 4%(nc). Fieldwork was
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