A quick post about the YouGov poll in Friday's Times. Topline Westminster voting intention figures are CON 19%, LAB 19%, LDEM 24%, BREXIT 22%. These are obviously startling figures, unprecedented even. There are historical examples of third parties taking the lead (Cleggmania, for example, or the early successes
There are five polls with fieldwork conducted at least partially since the weekend - I don't know if there are more to come overnight (I think there may be at least one more. ComRes and Survation have both polled during the campaign, but I don't know
The Times have released a new YouGov poll of party members - the report is here and the tables here. Theresa May's time is essentially up. Party members are normally the loyalist of the loyal, but even here there are few good words to be said. Only 20%
Today's Sunday papers have the first polls conducted since the local elections, from Opinium and ComRes. Opinium for the Observer have Westminster voting intentions of CON 22%(-4), LAB 28%(-5), LDEM 11%(+5), BREX 21%(+4), GRN 6%(+2), ChUK 4%(nc), UKIP 4%(nc). Fieldwork was
There are three polls this weekend asking about voting intentions in the European Parliament election: A YouGov poll conducted for Hope Not Hate has topline European election voting intentions of CON 13%(-4), LAB 22%(nc), LDEM 7%(-2), BREX 28%(+5), UKIP 5%(-1), GRN 10%(nc), ChUK 10%
This morning's Times has a new YouGov poll with topline figures of CON 28%(-4), LAB 32%(+1), LDEM 11%(-1), BREXIT 8%(+3), UKIP 6%(-1), GRN 5%(+1), Change 3% (new). Fieldwork was Wednesday and Thursday and changes are since the start of April. This is
Opinion polling on Brexit has not necessarily been the best. Highly politically contentious issues do tend to attract polling that is sub-optimal, and Brexit has followed that trend. I've seen several Brexit polls coming up with surprising findings based on agree/disagree statements - that is, questions asked
There are two polls in this morning's papers - Survation in the Mail and YouGov in the Times. Survation have topline figures of CON 35%(-5), LAB 39%(+3), LDEM 10%(nc), UKIP 5%(nc). Fieldwork was on Friday, and changes are from mkid-February. YouGov have topline figures
There were two polls in the Sunday papers. ComRes had a poll conducted for BrexitExpress (a pro-Brexit pressure group) prominently but poorly reported in the Sunday Telegraph. The voting intention question included The Independent Group as an option, producing topline figures of CON 36%(-2), LAB 34%(-3), LDEM 8%
There are two new voting intention polls in the Sunday papers, tackling the issue of measuring TIG support in different ways... Deltapoll for the Mail on Sunday have standard voting intentions of CON 43%, LAB 36%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 5%. Respondents were then asked how they would vote if The
Today we've had the first two polls asking people about whether they'd support The Independent Group were they to stand candidates. Survation in the Daily Mail asked how people would vote if there was "a new centrist party opposed to Brexit", producing voting intention
Rather than their usual poll for the Times, this week YouGov have a full MRP model of voting intention (that is, the same method that YouGov used for their seat projection at the general election). Topline voting intention figures from the YouGov MRP model are CON 39%, LAB 34%, LDEM
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