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Latest voting intention and the impact of turnout

Here are the mid-week polls so far: Kantar - CON 45%(+8), LAB 27%(nc), LDEM 16%(-1), BREX 2%(-7) YouGov/Times/Sky - CON 42%(-3), LAB 30%(+2), LDEM 15%(nc), BREX 4%(nc) ICM/Reuters - CON 42%(+3), LAB 32%(+1), LDEM 13%(-2), BREX

By Anthony Wells 19 Nov 2019

Sunday's voting intention polls

There are (so far at least), five GB voting intention polls in the Sunday papers. YouGov/Sunday Times - CON 45%(+3), LAB 28%(nc), LDEM 15%(nc), BREX 4%(nc). Fieldwork was Thursday and Friday, and changes are from the YouGov/Times/Sky poll mid-week. (tabs) SavantaComRes/S Telegraph

By Anthony Wells 16 Nov 2019

Understanding the latest voting intention polls

A round up of voting intention polls published during the week. We have had three polls with fieldwork conducted wholly after the announcement from Nigel Farage that the Brexit party would not stand in Conservative seats: Panelbase (13th-14th) - CON 43%(+3), LAB 30%(nc), LDEM 15%(nc), BREX 5%

By Anthony Wells 16 Nov 2019

Sunday polls round-up

Four voting intention polls in the Sunday papers. YouGov/Sunday Times - CON 39%(+3), LAB 26%(+1), LDEM 17%(nc), BREX 10%(-1) (tabs) Deltapoll/Mail on Sunday - CON 41%(+1), LAB 29%(+1), LDEM 16%(+2), BREX 6%(-5) (tabs) Opinium/Observer - CON 41%(-1), LAB

By Anthony Wells 10 Nov 2019

MRP models and tactical voting

Given the success of the approach at the 2017 election I expect we'll see several MRP seat models this time round. The first one to emerge however is one constructed by Focaldata, using data from mixed sources, including YouGov, that Best for Britain have used to drive a

By Anthony Wells 07 Nov 2019

London, Welsh and Constituency polling

At the weekend we had a positive glut of national polls. In the last couple of days they've been joined by London and Wales polls from YouGov. The Welsh poll for ITV Wales has Westminster voting intentions of CON 28%(-1), LAB 29%(+4), LDEM 12%(-4), BREX

By Anthony Wells 05 Nov 2019

A summary of the five voting intention polls in Sunday's papers

The first Sunday of the election campaign, and as you expect, several polls in the Sunday papers: The Telegraph have a poll from ORB. Topline figures are CON 36%, LAB 28%, LDEM 14%, BREX 12%. Fieldwork was Wednesday and Thursday. While they've published some trackers on support for

By Anthony Wells 02 Nov 2019

The first polls of the campaign

The first voting intention polls published since the election was called were in this morning's papers: Survation for the Mail, Ipsos MORI for the Standard and YouGov for the Times. Topline figures were Survation - CON 34%, LAB 26%, LDEM 19%, BREX 12%, GRN 1% (tabs) Ipsos MORI

By Anthony Wells 31 Oct 2019

A reminder that hypothetical polling questions are a bit rubbish

I wrote about this in my last post - exploring what, if anything, we could tell from the polling about whether Boris Johnson would get the blame if Brexit did indeed end up being delayed past the 31st October. With the government now pushing for an election in December the

By Anthony Wells 24 Oct 2019

How much damage would a delay do to Boris Johnson?

The position in the polls remains much the same as the last time I updated - the Conservatives still have a substantial lead, though one that varies from pollster to pollster due to methodological differences. The figures also remain somewhat artificial given we know that a major event with the

By Anthony Wells 15 Oct 2019

Latest voting intention and the difference between the polls

There have been three polls over the last week - in the Sunday papers there were polls from ComRes and Opinium, the regular YouGov poll for the Times last week. Voting intention figures were: Opinium - CON 37%, LAB 25%, LDEM 16%, BREX 13%, GRN 2% (tabs) ComRes - CON

By Anthony Wells 16 Sep 2019

Prorogation polling

Three polling companies - YouGov, Ipsos MORI and Survation - have so far released polling on the government's decision to prorogue Parliament in mid-September. YouGov polled on the issue twice - a snap poll on the day of the announcement itself, with the same question repeated overnight. The

By Anthony Wells 31 Aug 2019
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