In the fullness of time I am sure much more will be said about why the polls overestimated the level of Lib Dem support at the election, but there was an interesting nugget from Andrew Cooper of Populus on More or Less on Radio 4 earlier. Populus's final
Time for a catch up of the YouGov polling over the last few days. Questions on the emergency budget show some pretty negative expectations - 70% of people expect the budget to increase taxes paid by and/or reduce benefits paid to people like them, only 10% of people expect
The Sun's YouGov questions todayfound 55% of people supported £6 billion in spending cuts being carried out this year, with 28% thinking they should be delayed till next year amd 6% opposing them completely. Of course, non-specific cuts are likely to be more popular than whatever the government
Tonight we have the first voting intentions since the General election. ComRes in the Independent on Sunday/Sunday Mirror have voting intentions of CON 38%, LAB 34%, LDEM 21%. From the general election the Liberal Democrats are down and Labour up, presumably a direct defection of Liberal Democrat voters who
We have the first few polls about the coalition coming in. YouGov's daily polling for the Sun this week found 56% approval, 38% disapproval on Wednesday, growing to 60% approval, 33% disapproval on Thursday. There was scepticism about how long it would last though - 28% think it
I have now updated the swingometers on the site with 2010 election data. Dull old text version here - http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/swing-calculator Lovely graphical version (but needs a plug-in for Internet Explorer) - http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/swingometer-map Enhanced graphical version with seperate swings for Scotland
As I'm sure everyone will know, Gordon Brown has resigned as Prime Minister and Leader of the Labour party (making Harriet Harman leader until a permanent replacement is elected), and David Cameron is now Prime Minister at the head of a coalition government. Cabinet appointments appear to be
YouGov's poll for the Sun this morning asked people their preference on the coalition deal. 20% wanted the Conservatives to govern as a minority, 33% wanted a pact or coalition between the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats (giving a total of 53% wanting a Conservative led government), 39% of
Second places We know the Liberal Democrats didn't end up increasing the number of seats they hold, but they did substantially increase the number of second places they have, and have more winnable marginals. The notional 2005 figures had the Lib Dems holding 62 seats and in second
There are two post-election polls in tomorrow's papers. A YouGov poll in the Sunday Times found 62% think that Gordon Brown should concede defeat, wih 28% thinking he is right to wait to see if the Conservative and Liberal Democrat negotiations fail. Asked who should form the next
Seats where the Conservative share fell There were 75 seats where the Conservative share of the vote fell. Their biggest falls were Westmorland and Lonsdale (the effect of Tim Farron building up a mountainous personal vote), Bromsgrove (presumably the result of Julie Kirkbride's expenses - though there were
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