Lord Ashcroft has commissioned a poll of voters in Eastleigh ahead of the by-election, due for the 28th February. It's due for release at midnight, but rather embarassingly the Guardian managed to break the embargo and shove it on their website at ten to six. While they'
This morning's YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 31%, LAB 42%, LDEM 12%, UKIP 9% - tables are here. This follows on from a ten point Labour lead yesterday, so with the referedum boost gone, it looks like we are settling back into the
This morning's YouGov/Sun poll has got a lot of attention because it shows an extreme - CON 30%, LAB 45%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 9% - the biggest Labour lead since YouGov started doing their regular polls in 2002. Usual caveats apply - the polls that show striking
Regular readers will know that I have often complained about surveys claiming to show that an issue or policy stance will make people more or less likely to vote for a party. I've written about it previously here, here and here. Polls like this are very popular with
Here are few bits and bobs for Friday afternoon. The YouGov/Sun daily poll this morning had topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 44%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 8%. As we suspected yesterday, the Conservative boost from the referendum pledge has indeed faded away. While we're on that topic,
This morning's YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 42%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 7%. It follows another nine point lead yesterday. While it isn't definite (the figures have a horrible habit of proving me wrong the moment I suggest something may
I expect this will be the last one of these for a few years, as the Commons looks likely to vote to approve the Lords amendment abandoning the current boundary review and setting the next boundary review to begin in 2015, reporting in September-October 2018. Today should see an end
We had the monthly ComRes online poll yesterday, today we have their monthly telephone poll for the Independent. Topline figures here are CON 32%(+1), LAB 39%(-2), LDEM 10%(nc), UKIP 10%(+1). The changes are all well within the margin of error so are not meaningful in themselves,
The first poll conducted after Cameron's Europe speech, YouGov's on Friday, didn't appear to show any impact on voting intention. However, this weekend we have a further four polls conducted after the speech (the Opinium one was mostly done prior to the speech). Here
Tonight we are due at least three polls - the monthly online ComRes poll for the Independent on Sunday & Sunday Mirror, the fortnightly Opinium poll for the Observer and the weekly YouGov poll for the Sunday Times. I believe there may also be a Survation poll for the
Yesterday we had two polls conducted partially after the referendum announcement, from YouGov and TNS, neither of which showed any boost for the Conservatives. Today's YouGov is the first conducted entirely after the referendum announcement and has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 43%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 9%
We won't get any actual polling numbers until tonight or tomorrow, and certainly won't get a clear handle on any impact upon voting intention until at least tomorrow, but here's a few initial thoughts on the European referendum. Referendums are popular, but most people
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